Open Thread 325

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This is the weekly visible open thread. Post about anything you want, ask random questions, whatever. ACX has an unofficial subreddit, Discord, and bulletin board, and in-person meetups around the world. 95% of content is free, but for the remaining 5% you can subscribe here. Also:

1: More meetups this week, including London, Oxford, SF, Cambridge (UK), Vienna, Portland, Jerusalem, Sydney, Ann Arbor, Capetown, Paris, Rome, Lisbon, Boulder, Dallas, Leipzig, and Jakarta; bolding these last two since they were later additions you might have missed the first time. Check the list for more information.

2: Thanks to everyone for continued good discussion on the Highlights From The Comments On The Lab Leak Debate. I want to avoid getting bogged down in this forever, so I’ll mostly try to resist responding and just highlight some of the pro-lab-leak comments I found most thought-provoking:

• ACX commenter David Bahry has published a paper on the lab leak case, especially relating to ascertainment bias.

• Bahry was also able to find the source of the George Gao quote (though see also objection here)

• Saar on the negative blood samples.

• Simon Stats on early COVID doubling time arguments (but cf my response here)

• A figure I took from Peter’s blog post was edited from its original context, further explanation here.

• Michael Weissman’s probabilities.

• Long discussion of new data about DEFUSE proposal.

Feel free to discuss your thoughts on these here, I won’t be participating. Also: Phil H explains why one of the scientists in this debate is named “Lv” (it’s a romanization issue)

3: Sorry for low post volume recently, combination of kids, illness, and trying to get all the lab leak stuff tied up. Hopefully will improve in 18 years shortly.