18 Comments

I think a link to the markets page is missing

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Looks like the proposals are flooding in. Exciting!

Missing link to the gallery of proposals: https://manifund.org/

PS: I'd love to hear from anyone who can imagine actually using the small-group futarchy app I've proposed building!

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> if I believe are $40,000

Typo.

> (click to be linked to market home page)

I think a link is missing.

> The auctions say they’re closing March 8th, but we’re running a little behind schedule and might keep them open until March 12th instead.

You say "might" here, but then later say "March 12: Auctions for equity in existing projects close".

And two of the bullet points at the end are missing a period.

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This is such a great idea. Who came up with it?

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author

Some combination of a New Zealand economist named Ronnie Horesh, Paul Christiano, and Vitalik Buterin.

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Not sure if anybody has commented on this yet, but ... this looks potentially more useful as an alternative for funding infrastructure than it does for funding charity.

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Infrastructure is expensive and intrinsically political. This is still in the proof of concept stage.

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Do investors have a good way of predicting how the judges will assign a final value to a project?

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author

My plan (open for criticism) is to use "expected final impact, conditional on impact 9/1". If the project is finished, completed impact = expected final impact. If it's partway done, I will use the done part to predict final impact. If it's not done at all, I will use the fact that the person is a flake and wasted six months to predict final impact (probably low, though there could be extenuating factors).

After 9/1, I will try to value every project, and distribute final oracular funding at the same ratio, ie if your project produced X% of the total value, you get $40K/X. I don't have a clear plan about whether this means buying certificates for all non-zero projects, I think it would depend on transaction costs and how big the differences between projects were. I would probably find it annoying to have to send money to more than ten projects.

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> Sixteen people have submitted projects!

Not important, but on that screenshot I count 17 projects by 14 distinct people?

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Is there a place where we can offer to help approved projects with our time?

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