I sure hope this is poetic license, because drinking from a random pool of water will likely kill you in all kinds of interesting non-Covid-related ways :-)
How much time delay did the FDA actually cause? Wasn't a lot of the time necessary for figuring out a formulation of the vaccine that would deliver the mRNA in an effective way, and working out manufacturing and other logistical concerns?
Long time reader - first time commenter. This is the best. I love this. I don't even know the song and I love it. Thanks for the nuance and articulation.
It seems like there's a new divide growing between the "Vaccinate but change nothing yet" segment and the "I'm vaccinated now; I'm going to live my life again," segment. That may well map to altruistic vs. selfish — cynically, the latter type were only pro-lockdown to save their own skins — but there's also a trust dimension: a lot of people, and I'm one of them, think the CDC's recommendations aren't being made rationally.
Then there's the plain feeling that "I've done everything I was told I needed to do, and they moved the goalposts YET AGAIN. No. No more." Not a great argument, granted, but it may prove a major obstacle to compliance.
I'm thirty-eight and not fit, but working on it. Yes, I am in the herd, and I'll continue to wear a mask in public indoor spaces during cold & flu season. I always used to think that the East Asian kids wearing masks on my nearby university campus were paranoid, but the bacteria & viruses really are out to get us.
Chris Hayes' MSNBC show informed me of some CDC stats last month that I still find mind-blowing. The US usually records between 150-200 pediatric deaths associated with the flu each winter. This past winter, there was 1! Positive flu specimens dropped by two orders of magnitude year-over-year in late February.
We're going to have to give some of this back to reopen the economy and I certainly don't think any level of the government should mandate masking on a long-term basis. That's a blunt instrument to reserve for a crisis; this is the sort of thing that should evolve as a social norm if it proves worthwhile. If we can keep even part of that improvement with masks & better hand hygiene, it would be criminal to drop that because we just want to go back to the way things have always been, especially as a mask is just about as close to a free lunch as you'll find in this life.
I wish we could run this experiment on a national basis this coming winter to parse how much of the reduction in flu infection came from distancing and how much came from masks & hand hygiene, accounting for flu vaccine effectiveness & takeup, but that ship sailed many months ago. Maybe we'll be able to collect some data if a norm about masking establishes itself in a few smaller university towns like mine.
I'd say 90% bureaucracy and 10% we really, really, really don't want to inject something that could be harmful in our entire population of 300 million people, though. And to ascertain that, no matter how big the trial, a few months of observation are necessary.
To be fair, if Covid-19 were more lethal, this would have probably been faster: as long as vaccines are decent, you want to give them to people asap. But with this low-but-not-so-low lethality... it was the perfect bureaucrat storm.
This is a great song! Please write more content like this.
(Also, my brain somehow automatically generated a melody to the chorus as I read it, which I realized later to be similar to a song I wrote once but never published. Here's the melody, ROT13'd to encourage musical creativity:
I'm jealous that you can already get the covid shot; here in Europe the schedule just keeps lagging more and more. Luckily summer is just around the corner.
And now my subscription has paid for itself. Thanks, Scott! But if the fan community can put together a chorus capable of actually putting voice to this, that would be perfect.
Let's say the FDA had immediately authorized and recommended challenge trials at the start of the pandemic. How long would it have taken challenge trials to get efficacy results of similar significance to the observational RCTs that were actually performed?
I'm in awe of what it must be like where you live. Very little of this has proved necessary in Texas.
It would be interesting to hear this deepfaked in the style of Les Mis
ENCORE!!
I love this! You had me holding in laughter so my coworkers don't notice.
> Drink from the pool. How clean the taste.
I sure hope this is poetic license, because drinking from a random pool of water will likely kill you in all kinds of interesting non-Covid-related ways :-)
How much time delay did the FDA actually cause? Wasn't a lot of the time necessary for figuring out a formulation of the vaccine that would deliver the mRNA in an effective way, and working out manufacturing and other logistical concerns?
Long time reader - first time commenter. This is the best. I love this. I don't even know the song and I love it. Thanks for the nuance and articulation.
It seems like there's a new divide growing between the "Vaccinate but change nothing yet" segment and the "I'm vaccinated now; I'm going to live my life again," segment. That may well map to altruistic vs. selfish — cynically, the latter type were only pro-lockdown to save their own skins — but there's also a trust dimension: a lot of people, and I'm one of them, think the CDC's recommendations aren't being made rationally.
Then there's the plain feeling that "I've done everything I was told I needed to do, and they moved the goalposts YET AGAIN. No. No more." Not a great argument, granted, but it may prove a major obstacle to compliance.
Citizen Four is just the same lyric. Thank you.
Love it.
Swelling and redness.
Am I ill? Reacting? Sign
The card. Now - go home
"ME:
I'm thirty-six and fit!
NURSE:
You're in the herd"
I'm thirty-eight and not fit, but working on it. Yes, I am in the herd, and I'll continue to wear a mask in public indoor spaces during cold & flu season. I always used to think that the East Asian kids wearing masks on my nearby university campus were paranoid, but the bacteria & viruses really are out to get us.
Chris Hayes' MSNBC show informed me of some CDC stats last month that I still find mind-blowing. The US usually records between 150-200 pediatric deaths associated with the flu each winter. This past winter, there was 1! Positive flu specimens dropped by two orders of magnitude year-over-year in late February.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R5g_p_TFoiw
We're going to have to give some of this back to reopen the economy and I certainly don't think any level of the government should mandate masking on a long-term basis. That's a blunt instrument to reserve for a crisis; this is the sort of thing that should evolve as a social norm if it proves worthwhile. If we can keep even part of that improvement with masks & better hand hygiene, it would be criminal to drop that because we just want to go back to the way things have always been, especially as a mask is just about as close to a free lunch as you'll find in this life.
I wish we could run this experiment on a national basis this coming winter to parse how much of the reduction in flu infection came from distancing and how much came from masks & hand hygiene, accounting for flu vaccine effectiveness & takeup, but that ship sailed many months ago. Maybe we'll be able to collect some data if a norm about masking establishes itself in a few smaller university towns like mine.
This is amazing! I forwarded it to a couple of friends who deserve to know how awesome your writing can be.
Laughing, but also crying
I'd say 90% bureaucracy and 10% we really, really, really don't want to inject something that could be harmful in our entire population of 300 million people, though. And to ascertain that, no matter how big the trial, a few months of observation are necessary.
To be fair, if Covid-19 were more lethal, this would have probably been faster: as long as vaccines are decent, you want to give them to people asap. But with this low-but-not-so-low lethality... it was the perfect bureaucrat storm.
fantastic
This is a great song! Please write more content like this.
(Also, my brain somehow automatically generated a melody to the chorus as I read it, which I realized later to be similar to a song I wrote once but never published. Here's the melody, ROT13'd to encourage musical creativity:
Sfunec-O-Sfunec-Sfunec
Sfunec-R-Q-Q-R-Sfunec
Sfunec-O-Sfunec-Sfunec
Sfunec-Sfunec-R-Q-Pfunec-O)
Hilarious!
Even when Scott is shitposting, it's done with class.
When I read the email minus the embed, first heard this to the “Lovely Ladies” tune.
I'm jealous that you can already get the covid shot; here in Europe the schedule just keeps lagging more and more. Luckily summer is just around the corner.
And now my subscription has paid for itself. Thanks, Scott! But if the fan community can put together a chorus capable of actually putting voice to this, that would be perfect.
I was going to suggest something inspired by Marat/Sade.
Let's say the FDA had immediately authorized and recommended challenge trials at the start of the pandemic. How long would it have taken challenge trials to get efficacy results of similar significance to the observational RCTs that were actually performed?
Related song: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SB7K8v7TsGk
(Another user posted this same song and it was blocked by YouTube who claimed a TOS violation, so enjoy it while you still can)
I wrote a sequel: http://livingwithinreason.com/2021/05/26/covid-confrontation/