Open Thread 370
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This is the weekly visible open thread. Post about anything you want, ask random questions, whatever. ACX has an unofficial subreddit, Discord, and bulletin board, and in-person meetups around the world. 95% of content is free, but for the remaining 5% you can subscribe here. Also:
1: This year’s Tokyo AI Safety conference is Saturday, April 12; submit papers or sign up to attend at the bottom of the website.
2: I mentioned last week that Google/DeepMind AI safety team was hiring and linked an Alignment Forum post, but it was the wrong one! The right one is AGI Safety & Alignment At DeepMind Is Hiring.
3: Brown University (Rhode Island) is hosting a intercollegiate forecasting tournament on March 15, prize pool of $2000 plus the chance to “interview with a top hedge fund”. See here for more info, or sign up here.
4: Some straggler Metaculus/ACX forecasting winners who I didn’t get to mention last week:
Katifish is a computational/systems neuroscientist. She writes: "I've been predicting on and off for 6ish years, and find prediction competitions a useful tool to notice biases in my thinking and pay attention to details I might not otherwise notice. Happy to meet other forecasters and generally curious people in the Providence/Boston area, and open to hearing about job opportunities that would let me expand my skill set and integrate data across different domains. Feel free to reach out at katipredicts@gmail.com."
Sparepot is a privacy analyst at Meta, where he runs a low frequency prediction market for his team. He occasionally comments on ACX as Ace Is Low. He writes: "For the contest, I prioritized winning over platonic accuracy and shifted my real predictions to be more extreme. I don't know whether this is a lesson in self-confidence, support for the 'nothing ever happens' hypothesis, or a knock against the scoring algorithm. "
Also, last week I incorrectly listed J's email. The correct email is j@thedissonance.net. If you emailed him last week, please try again at the correct address.