[{"id":190662510,"editor_v2":false,"publication_id":89120,"title":"My AI Opinions","social_title":"My AI Opinions","search_engine_title":null,"search_engine_description":null,"type":"newsletter","slug":"my-ai-opinions","post_date":"2026-06-11T20:50:39.591Z","audience":"everyone","podcast_duration":null,"video_upload_id":null,"podcast_upload_id":null,"write_comment_permissions":"everyone","should_send_free_preview":false,"free_unlock_required":false,"default_comment_sort":null,"canonical_url":"https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/my-ai-opinions","section_id":null,"top_exclusions":[],"pins":[],"is_section_pinned":false,"section_slug":null,"section_name":null,"reactions":{"❤":431},"restacks":40,"restacked_post_id":null,"restacked_post_slug":null,"restacked_pub_name":null,"restacked_pub_logo_url":null,"subtitle":"...","cover_image":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/f992c3c2-3612-4f14-9002-966015c3bd9c_960x639.webp","cover_image_is_square":false,"cover_image_is_explicit":false,"podcast_url":null,"videoUpload":null,"podcastFields":{"post_id":190662510,"podcast_episode_number":null,"podcast_season_number":null,"podcast_episode_type":null,"should_syndicate_to_other_feed":null,"syndicate_to_section_id":null,"hide_from_feed":false,"free_podcast_url":null,"free_podcast_duration":null,"preview_contains_ad":false,"was_imported_self_serve_sync":false,"draft_free_podcast_url":null,"draft_free_podcast_duration":null},"podcast_preview_upload_id":null,"podcastUpload":null,"podcastPreviewUpload":null,"voiceover_upload_id":null,"voiceoverUpload":null,"has_voiceover":false,"description":"...","body_json":null,"body_html":null,"has_dynamic_content":false,"truncated_body_text":null,"wordcount":6177,"post_preview_limit":0,"language":"en","postTags":[],"teaser_post_eligible":true,"postCountryBlocks":[],"headlineTest":null,"coverImagePalette":{"Vibrant":{"rgb":[178,137,92],"population":83},"DarkVibrant":{"rgb":[100,64,38],"population":215},"LightVibrant":{"rgb":[228,196,156],"population":755},"Muted":{"rgb":[143,125,101],"population":581},"DarkMuted":{"rgb":[81,57,37],"population":685},"LightMuted":{"rgb":[212,188,156],"population":287}},"publishedBylines":[{"id":12009663,"name":"Scott Alexander","handle":"astralcodexten","photo_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7b500d22-1176-42ad-afaa-5d72bc36a809_44x44.png","bio":null,"profile_set_up_at":"2021-04-16T05:06:04.745Z","reader_installed_at":null,"publicationUsers":[{"id":18921,"user_id":12009663,"publication_id":89120,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":true,"publication":{"id":89120,"name":"Astral Codex Ten","subdomain":"astralcodexten","custom_domain":"www.astralcodexten.com","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"P(A|B) = [P(A)*P(B|A)]/P(B), all the rest is commentary.","logo_url":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/430241cb-ade5-4316-b1c9-6e3fe6e63e5e_256x256.png","author_id":12009663,"primary_user_id":12009663,"theme_var_background_pop":"#67bdfc","created_at":"2020-08-30T04:18:18.308Z","email_from_name":"Astral Codex Ten","copyright":"Scott Alexander","founding_plan_name":"Founding Member","community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"enabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}},{"id":4774441,"user_id":12009663,"publication_id":3475640,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":false,"publication":{"id":3475640,"name":"AI Futures Project","subdomain":"aifutures1","custom_domain":"blog.aifutures.org","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"Preparing for a world with AGI","logo_url":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/3409cfd0-9243-479e-80f9-d0e3922c450a_132x132.png","author_id":1831134,"primary_user_id":1831134,"theme_var_background_pop":"#FF6719","created_at":"2024-12-06T19:32:31.188Z","email_from_name":"The AI Futures Project","copyright":"AI Futures Project","founding_plan_name":null,"community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"disabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}}],"is_guest":false,"bestseller_tier":1000,"status":{"bestsellerTier":1000,"subscriberTier":10,"leaderboard":null,"vip":false,"badge":{"type":"bestseller","tier":1000},"subscriber":null}}],"reaction":null,"reaction_count":431,"comment_count":633,"child_comment_count":141,"audio_items":[{"post_id":190662510,"voice_id":"en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural","audio_url":"https://substack-video.s3.amazonaws.com/video_upload/post/190662510/tts/72171fe4-053c-445c-9a8a-6501733dab00/en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural.mp3","type":"tts","status":"completed"}],"is_geoblocked":false,"hasCashtag":false},{"id":201607982,"editor_v2":false,"publication_id":89120,"title":"Hidden Open Thread 437.5","social_title":"Hidden Open Thread 437.5","search_engine_title":null,"search_engine_description":null,"type":"newsletter","slug":"hidden-open-thread-4375","post_date":"2026-06-11T14:51:14.136Z","audience":"only_paid","podcast_duration":null,"video_upload_id":null,"podcast_upload_id":null,"write_comment_permissions":"only_paid","should_send_free_preview":false,"free_unlock_required":false,"default_comment_sort":null,"canonical_url":"https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/hidden-open-thread-4375","section_id":null,"top_exclusions":[],"pins":[],"is_section_pinned":false,"section_slug":null,"section_name":null,"reactions":{"❤":13},"restacks":0,"restacked_post_id":null,"restacked_post_slug":null,"restacked_pub_name":null,"restacked_pub_logo_url":null,"subtitle":"...","cover_image":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/ac7b4fe2-52e3-46e2-980e-26a75a4f57e1_612x583.jpeg","cover_image_is_square":false,"cover_image_is_explicit":false,"podcast_url":null,"videoUpload":null,"podcastFields":null,"podcast_preview_upload_id":null,"podcastUpload":null,"podcastPreviewUpload":null,"voiceover_upload_id":null,"voiceoverUpload":null,"has_voiceover":false,"description":"...","body_json":null,"body_html":null,"has_dynamic_content":false,"truncated_body_text":null,"wordcount":20,"post_preview_limit":0,"language":"en","postTags":[],"teaser_post_eligible":true,"postCountryBlocks":[],"headlineTest":null,"coverImagePalette":{"Vibrant":{"rgb":[129.375,129.375,125.625],"population":0},"DarkVibrant":{"rgb":[67.275,67.275,65.325],"population":0},"LightVibrant":{"rgb":[189.67499999999998,189.67499999999998,187.725],"population":0},"Muted":{"rgb":[124,124,124],"population":4},"DarkMuted":{"rgb":[68,68,68],"population":7},"LightMuted":{"rgb":[188,188,186],"population":5}},"publishedBylines":[{"id":12009663,"name":"Scott Alexander","handle":"astralcodexten","photo_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7b500d22-1176-42ad-afaa-5d72bc36a809_44x44.png","bio":null,"profile_set_up_at":"2021-04-16T05:06:04.745Z","reader_installed_at":null,"publicationUsers":[{"id":18921,"user_id":12009663,"publication_id":89120,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":true,"publication":{"id":89120,"name":"Astral Codex Ten","subdomain":"astralcodexten","custom_domain":"www.astralcodexten.com","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"P(A|B) = [P(A)*P(B|A)]/P(B), all the rest is commentary.","logo_url":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/430241cb-ade5-4316-b1c9-6e3fe6e63e5e_256x256.png","author_id":12009663,"primary_user_id":12009663,"theme_var_background_pop":"#67bdfc","created_at":"2020-08-30T04:18:18.308Z","email_from_name":"Astral Codex Ten","copyright":"Scott Alexander","founding_plan_name":"Founding Member","community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"enabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}},{"id":4774441,"user_id":12009663,"publication_id":3475640,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":false,"publication":{"id":3475640,"name":"AI Futures Project","subdomain":"aifutures1","custom_domain":"blog.aifutures.org","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"Preparing for a world with AGI","logo_url":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/3409cfd0-9243-479e-80f9-d0e3922c450a_132x132.png","author_id":1831134,"primary_user_id":1831134,"theme_var_background_pop":"#FF6719","created_at":"2024-12-06T19:32:31.188Z","email_from_name":"The AI Futures Project","copyright":"AI Futures Project","founding_plan_name":null,"community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"disabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}}],"is_guest":false,"bestseller_tier":1000,"status":{"bestsellerTier":1000,"subscriberTier":10,"leaderboard":null,"vip":false,"badge":{"type":"bestseller","tier":1000},"subscriber":null}}],"reaction":null,"reaction_count":13,"comment_count":79,"child_comment_count":14,"audio_items":[{"post_id":201607982,"voice_id":"en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural","audio_url":null,"type":"tts","status":"paywalled"}],"is_geoblocked":false,"hidden":true,"hasCashtag":false},{"id":201222951,"editor_v2":false,"publication_id":89120,"title":"Berkeley Meetup This Wednesday","social_title":"Berkeley Meetup This Wednesday","search_engine_title":null,"search_engine_description":null,"type":"newsletter","slug":"berkeley-meetup-this-wednesday-77b","post_date":"2026-06-08T23:12:38.496Z","audience":"everyone","podcast_duration":null,"video_upload_id":null,"podcast_upload_id":null,"write_comment_permissions":"everyone","should_send_free_preview":false,"free_unlock_required":false,"default_comment_sort":null,"canonical_url":"https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/berkeley-meetup-this-wednesday-77b","section_id":null,"top_exclusions":[],"pins":[],"is_section_pinned":false,"section_slug":null,"section_name":null,"reactions":{"❤":81},"restacks":0,"restacked_post_id":null,"restacked_post_slug":null,"restacked_pub_name":null,"restacked_pub_logo_url":null,"subtitle":"...","cover_image":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/608e529b-3675-471d-96a4-8240de0c3c78_2048x1366.jpeg","cover_image_is_square":false,"cover_image_is_explicit":false,"podcast_url":null,"videoUpload":null,"podcastFields":null,"podcast_preview_upload_id":null,"podcastUpload":null,"podcastPreviewUpload":null,"voiceover_upload_id":null,"voiceoverUpload":null,"has_voiceover":false,"description":"...","body_json":null,"body_html":null,"has_dynamic_content":false,"truncated_body_text":null,"wordcount":154,"post_preview_limit":0,"language":"en","postTags":[],"teaser_post_eligible":true,"postCountryBlocks":[],"headlineTest":null,"coverImagePalette":{"Vibrant":{"rgb":[104,163,237],"population":359},"DarkVibrant":{"rgb":[87,75,41],"population":195},"LightVibrant":{"rgb":[135,187,250],"population":362},"Muted":{"rgb":[156,142,97],"population":379},"DarkMuted":{"rgb":[82,64,52],"population":88},"LightMuted":{"rgb":[216,214,210],"population":359}},"publishedBylines":[{"id":12009663,"name":"Scott Alexander","handle":"astralcodexten","photo_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7b500d22-1176-42ad-afaa-5d72bc36a809_44x44.png","bio":null,"profile_set_up_at":"2021-04-16T05:06:04.745Z","reader_installed_at":null,"publicationUsers":[{"id":18921,"user_id":12009663,"publication_id":89120,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":true,"publication":{"id":89120,"name":"Astral Codex Ten","subdomain":"astralcodexten","custom_domain":"www.astralcodexten.com","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"P(A|B) = [P(A)*P(B|A)]/P(B), all the rest is commentary.","logo_url":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/430241cb-ade5-4316-b1c9-6e3fe6e63e5e_256x256.png","author_id":12009663,"primary_user_id":12009663,"theme_var_background_pop":"#67bdfc","created_at":"2020-08-30T04:18:18.308Z","email_from_name":"Astral Codex Ten","copyright":"Scott Alexander","founding_plan_name":"Founding Member","community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"enabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}},{"id":4774441,"user_id":12009663,"publication_id":3475640,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":false,"publication":{"id":3475640,"name":"AI Futures Project","subdomain":"aifutures1","custom_domain":"blog.aifutures.org","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"Preparing for a world with AGI","logo_url":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/3409cfd0-9243-479e-80f9-d0e3922c450a_132x132.png","author_id":1831134,"primary_user_id":1831134,"theme_var_background_pop":"#FF6719","created_at":"2024-12-06T19:32:31.188Z","email_from_name":"The AI Futures Project","copyright":"AI Futures Project","founding_plan_name":null,"community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"disabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}}],"is_guest":false,"bestseller_tier":1000,"status":{"bestsellerTier":1000,"subscriberTier":10,"leaderboard":null,"vip":false,"badge":{"type":"bestseller","tier":1000},"subscriber":null}}],"reaction":null,"reaction_count":81,"comment_count":20,"child_comment_count":11,"audio_items":[{"post_id":201222951,"voice_id":"en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural","audio_url":"https://substack-video.s3.amazonaws.com/video_upload/post/201222951/tts/cdf782b2-f26e-4b0d-93d6-5365c90374b2/en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural.mp3","type":"tts","status":"completed"}],"is_geoblocked":false,"hasCashtag":false},{"id":201143682,"editor_v2":false,"publication_id":89120,"title":"Open Thread 437","social_title":"Open Thread 437","search_engine_title":null,"search_engine_description":null,"type":"newsletter","slug":"open-thread-437","post_date":"2026-06-08T14:18:09.187Z","audience":"everyone","podcast_duration":null,"video_upload_id":null,"podcast_upload_id":null,"write_comment_permissions":"everyone","should_send_free_preview":false,"free_unlock_required":false,"default_comment_sort":null,"canonical_url":"https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/open-thread-437","section_id":null,"top_exclusions":[],"pins":[],"is_section_pinned":false,"section_slug":null,"section_name":null,"reactions":{"❤":63},"restacks":8,"restacked_post_id":null,"restacked_post_slug":null,"restacked_pub_name":null,"restacked_pub_logo_url":null,"subtitle":"...","cover_image":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/a8e28e6e-9482-4874-9b9d-1b7a6a438a86_1536x1024.png","cover_image_is_square":false,"cover_image_is_explicit":false,"podcast_url":null,"videoUpload":null,"podcastFields":{"post_id":201143682,"podcast_episode_number":null,"podcast_season_number":null,"podcast_episode_type":null,"should_syndicate_to_other_feed":null,"syndicate_to_section_id":null,"hide_from_feed":false,"free_podcast_url":null,"free_podcast_duration":null,"preview_contains_ad":false,"was_imported_self_serve_sync":false,"draft_free_podcast_url":null,"draft_free_podcast_duration":null},"podcast_preview_upload_id":null,"podcastUpload":null,"podcastPreviewUpload":null,"voiceover_upload_id":null,"voiceoverUpload":null,"has_voiceover":false,"description":"...","body_json":null,"body_html":null,"has_dynamic_content":false,"truncated_body_text":null,"wordcount":188,"post_preview_limit":0,"language":"en","postTags":[],"teaser_post_eligible":true,"postCountryBlocks":[],"headlineTest":null,"coverImagePalette":{"Vibrant":{"rgb":[215,56,13],"population":269},"DarkVibrant":{"rgb":[123,24,11],"population":283},"LightVibrant":{"rgb":[241,170,71],"population":645},"Muted":{"rgb":[86,160,162],"population":14},"DarkMuted":{"rgb":[52,92,54],"population":115},"LightMuted":{"rgb":[142.18181818181816,87.3181818181818,10.81818181818183],"population":0}},"publishedBylines":[{"id":12009663,"name":"Scott Alexander","handle":"astralcodexten","photo_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7b500d22-1176-42ad-afaa-5d72bc36a809_44x44.png","bio":null,"profile_set_up_at":"2021-04-16T05:06:04.745Z","reader_installed_at":null,"publicationUsers":[{"id":18921,"user_id":12009663,"publication_id":89120,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":true,"publication":{"id":89120,"name":"Astral Codex Ten","subdomain":"astralcodexten","custom_domain":"www.astralcodexten.com","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"P(A|B) = [P(A)*P(B|A)]/P(B), all the rest is commentary.","logo_url":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/430241cb-ade5-4316-b1c9-6e3fe6e63e5e_256x256.png","author_id":12009663,"primary_user_id":12009663,"theme_var_background_pop":"#67bdfc","created_at":"2020-08-30T04:18:18.308Z","email_from_name":"Astral Codex Ten","copyright":"Scott Alexander","founding_plan_name":"Founding Member","community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"enabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}},{"id":4774441,"user_id":12009663,"publication_id":3475640,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":false,"publication":{"id":3475640,"name":"AI Futures Project","subdomain":"aifutures1","custom_domain":"blog.aifutures.org","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"Preparing for a world with AGI","logo_url":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/3409cfd0-9243-479e-80f9-d0e3922c450a_132x132.png","author_id":1831134,"primary_user_id":1831134,"theme_var_background_pop":"#FF6719","created_at":"2024-12-06T19:32:31.188Z","email_from_name":"The AI Futures Project","copyright":"AI Futures Project","founding_plan_name":null,"community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"disabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}}],"is_guest":false,"bestseller_tier":1000,"status":{"bestsellerTier":1000,"subscriberTier":10,"leaderboard":null,"vip":false,"badge":{"type":"bestseller","tier":1000},"subscriber":null}}],"reaction":null,"reaction_count":63,"comment_count":531,"child_comment_count":50,"audio_items":[{"post_id":201143682,"voice_id":"en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural","audio_url":"https://substack-video.s3.amazonaws.com/video_upload/post/201143682/tts/48bc1cfc-a71b-4414-8eb4-9b33401df25f/en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural.mp3","type":"tts","status":"completed"}],"is_geoblocked":false,"hasCashtag":false},{"id":200510515,"editor_v2":false,"publication_id":89120,"title":"Choose Book Review Finalists 2026","social_title":"Choose Book Review Finalists 2026","search_engine_title":null,"search_engine_description":null,"type":"newsletter","slug":"choose-book-review-finalists-2026","post_date":"2026-06-03T19:57:08.318Z","audience":"everyone","podcast_duration":null,"video_upload_id":null,"podcast_upload_id":null,"write_comment_permissions":"everyone","should_send_free_preview":false,"free_unlock_required":false,"default_comment_sort":null,"canonical_url":"https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/choose-book-review-finalists-2026","section_id":null,"top_exclusions":[],"pins":[],"is_section_pinned":false,"section_slug":null,"section_name":null,"reactions":{"❤":105},"restacks":5,"restacked_post_id":null,"restacked_post_slug":null,"restacked_pub_name":null,"restacked_pub_logo_url":null,"subtitle":"...","cover_image":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/e4cce87e-4b3e-4aca-ab59-4045d42d88dc_2560x1587.jpeg","cover_image_is_square":false,"cover_image_is_explicit":false,"podcast_url":null,"videoUpload":null,"podcastFields":{"post_id":200510515,"podcast_episode_number":null,"podcast_season_number":null,"podcast_episode_type":null,"should_syndicate_to_other_feed":null,"syndicate_to_section_id":null,"hide_from_feed":false,"free_podcast_url":null,"free_podcast_duration":null,"preview_contains_ad":false,"was_imported_self_serve_sync":false,"draft_free_podcast_url":null,"draft_free_podcast_duration":null},"podcast_preview_upload_id":null,"podcastUpload":null,"podcastPreviewUpload":null,"voiceover_upload_id":null,"voiceoverUpload":null,"has_voiceover":false,"description":"...","body_json":null,"body_html":null,"has_dynamic_content":false,"truncated_body_text":null,"wordcount":149,"post_preview_limit":0,"language":"en","postTags":[],"teaser_post_eligible":true,"postCountryBlocks":[],"headlineTest":null,"coverImagePalette":{"Vibrant":{"rgb":[194,56,48],"population":416},"DarkVibrant":{"rgb":[123,40,36],"population":31},"LightVibrant":{"rgb":[224,173,77],"population":62},"Muted":{"rgb":[145,140,119],"population":421},"DarkMuted":{"rgb":[88,56,49],"population":342},"LightMuted":{"rgb":[204,186,162],"population":4}},"publishedBylines":[{"id":12009663,"name":"Scott Alexander","handle":"astralcodexten","photo_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7b500d22-1176-42ad-afaa-5d72bc36a809_44x44.png","bio":null,"profile_set_up_at":"2021-04-16T05:06:04.745Z","reader_installed_at":null,"publicationUsers":[{"id":18921,"user_id":12009663,"publication_id":89120,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":true,"publication":{"id":89120,"name":"Astral Codex Ten","subdomain":"astralcodexten","custom_domain":"www.astralcodexten.com","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"P(A|B) = [P(A)*P(B|A)]/P(B), all the rest is commentary.","logo_url":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/430241cb-ade5-4316-b1c9-6e3fe6e63e5e_256x256.png","author_id":12009663,"primary_user_id":12009663,"theme_var_background_pop":"#67bdfc","created_at":"2020-08-30T04:18:18.308Z","email_from_name":"Astral Codex Ten","copyright":"Scott Alexander","founding_plan_name":"Founding Member","community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"enabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}},{"id":4774441,"user_id":12009663,"publication_id":3475640,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":false,"publication":{"id":3475640,"name":"AI Futures Project","subdomain":"aifutures1","custom_domain":"blog.aifutures.org","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"Preparing for a world with AGI","logo_url":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/3409cfd0-9243-479e-80f9-d0e3922c450a_132x132.png","author_id":1831134,"primary_user_id":1831134,"theme_var_background_pop":"#FF6719","created_at":"2024-12-06T19:32:31.188Z","email_from_name":"The AI Futures Project","copyright":"AI Futures Project","founding_plan_name":null,"community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"disabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}}],"is_guest":false,"bestseller_tier":1000,"status":{"bestsellerTier":1000,"subscriberTier":10,"leaderboard":null,"vip":false,"badge":{"type":"bestseller","tier":1000},"subscriber":null}}],"reaction":null,"reaction_count":105,"comment_count":303,"child_comment_count":49,"audio_items":[{"post_id":200510515,"voice_id":"en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural","audio_url":"https://substack-video.s3.amazonaws.com/video_upload/post/200510515/tts/dd101672-bb9c-485f-b966-9a6c4af407ff/en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural.mp3","type":"tts","status":"completed"}],"is_geoblocked":false,"hasCashtag":false},{"id":200232315,"editor_v2":false,"publication_id":89120,"title":"Open Thread 436","social_title":"Open Thread 436","search_engine_title":null,"search_engine_description":null,"type":"newsletter","slug":"open-thread-436","post_date":"2026-06-02T04:23:03.788Z","audience":"everyone","podcast_duration":null,"video_upload_id":null,"podcast_upload_id":null,"write_comment_permissions":"everyone","should_send_free_preview":false,"free_unlock_required":false,"default_comment_sort":null,"canonical_url":"https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/open-thread-436","section_id":null,"top_exclusions":[],"pins":[],"is_section_pinned":false,"section_slug":null,"section_name":null,"reactions":{"❤":66},"restacks":3,"restacked_post_id":null,"restacked_post_slug":null,"restacked_pub_name":null,"restacked_pub_logo_url":null,"subtitle":"...","cover_image":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/1b3af9f5-3f9a-4ae4-921d-ae97c419900f_1536x1024.png","cover_image_is_square":false,"cover_image_is_explicit":false,"podcast_url":null,"videoUpload":null,"podcastFields":{"post_id":200232315,"podcast_episode_number":null,"podcast_season_number":null,"podcast_episode_type":null,"should_syndicate_to_other_feed":null,"syndicate_to_section_id":null,"hide_from_feed":false,"free_podcast_url":null,"free_podcast_duration":null,"preview_contains_ad":false,"was_imported_self_serve_sync":false,"draft_free_podcast_url":null,"draft_free_podcast_duration":null},"podcast_preview_upload_id":null,"podcastUpload":null,"podcastPreviewUpload":null,"voiceover_upload_id":null,"voiceoverUpload":null,"has_voiceover":false,"description":"...","body_json":null,"body_html":null,"has_dynamic_content":false,"truncated_body_text":null,"wordcount":478,"post_preview_limit":0,"language":"en","postTags":[],"teaser_post_eligible":true,"postCountryBlocks":[],"headlineTest":null,"coverImagePalette":{"Vibrant":{"rgb":[215,56,13],"population":269},"DarkVibrant":{"rgb":[123,24,11],"population":283},"LightVibrant":{"rgb":[241,170,71],"population":645},"Muted":{"rgb":[86,160,162],"population":14},"DarkMuted":{"rgb":[52,92,54],"population":115},"LightMuted":{"rgb":[142.18181818181816,87.3181818181818,10.81818181818183],"population":0}},"publishedBylines":[{"id":12009663,"name":"Scott Alexander","handle":"astralcodexten","photo_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7b500d22-1176-42ad-afaa-5d72bc36a809_44x44.png","bio":null,"profile_set_up_at":"2021-04-16T05:06:04.745Z","reader_installed_at":null,"publicationUsers":[{"id":18921,"user_id":12009663,"publication_id":89120,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":true,"publication":{"id":89120,"name":"Astral Codex Ten","subdomain":"astralcodexten","custom_domain":"www.astralcodexten.com","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"P(A|B) = [P(A)*P(B|A)]/P(B), all the rest is commentary.","logo_url":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/430241cb-ade5-4316-b1c9-6e3fe6e63e5e_256x256.png","author_id":12009663,"primary_user_id":12009663,"theme_var_background_pop":"#67bdfc","created_at":"2020-08-30T04:18:18.308Z","email_from_name":"Astral Codex Ten","copyright":"Scott Alexander","founding_plan_name":"Founding Member","community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"enabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}},{"id":4774441,"user_id":12009663,"publication_id":3475640,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":false,"publication":{"id":3475640,"name":"AI Futures Project","subdomain":"aifutures1","custom_domain":"blog.aifutures.org","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"Preparing for a world with AGI","logo_url":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/3409cfd0-9243-479e-80f9-d0e3922c450a_132x132.png","author_id":1831134,"primary_user_id":1831134,"theme_var_background_pop":"#FF6719","created_at":"2024-12-06T19:32:31.188Z","email_from_name":"The AI Futures Project","copyright":"AI Futures Project","founding_plan_name":null,"community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"disabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}}],"is_guest":false,"bestseller_tier":1000,"status":{"bestsellerTier":1000,"subscriberTier":10,"leaderboard":null,"vip":false,"badge":{"type":"bestseller","tier":1000},"subscriber":null}}],"reaction":null,"reaction_count":66,"comment_count":649,"child_comment_count":60,"audio_items":[{"post_id":200232315,"voice_id":"en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural","audio_url":"https://substack-video.s3.amazonaws.com/video_upload/post/200232315/tts/fb03e36f-bc00-49c9-8c35-88a2b8d9dcb1/en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural.mp3","type":"tts","status":"completed"}],"is_geoblocked":false,"hasCashtag":false},{"id":197056990,"editor_v2":false,"publication_id":89120,"title":"Book Review: The Dialectical Imagination","social_title":"Book Review: The Dialectical Imagination","search_engine_title":null,"search_engine_description":null,"type":"newsletter","slug":"book-review-the-dialectical-imagination","post_date":"2026-05-29T08:14:27.191Z","audience":"everyone","podcast_duration":null,"video_upload_id":null,"podcast_upload_id":null,"write_comment_permissions":"everyone","should_send_free_preview":false,"free_unlock_required":false,"default_comment_sort":null,"canonical_url":"https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/book-review-the-dialectical-imagination","section_id":null,"top_exclusions":[],"pins":[],"is_section_pinned":false,"section_slug":null,"section_name":null,"reactions":{"❤":758},"restacks":113,"restacked_post_id":null,"restacked_post_slug":null,"restacked_pub_name":null,"restacked_pub_logo_url":null,"subtitle":"...","cover_image":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/f9e6e5be-2c75-40c4-a949-46770da9815f_612x408.jpeg","cover_image_is_square":false,"cover_image_is_explicit":false,"podcast_url":null,"videoUpload":null,"podcastFields":{"post_id":197056990,"podcast_episode_number":null,"podcast_season_number":null,"podcast_episode_type":null,"should_syndicate_to_other_feed":null,"syndicate_to_section_id":null,"hide_from_feed":false,"free_podcast_url":null,"free_podcast_duration":null,"preview_contains_ad":false,"was_imported_self_serve_sync":false,"draft_free_podcast_url":null,"draft_free_podcast_duration":null},"podcast_preview_upload_id":null,"podcastUpload":null,"podcastPreviewUpload":null,"voiceover_upload_id":null,"voiceoverUpload":null,"has_voiceover":false,"description":"...","body_json":null,"body_html":null,"has_dynamic_content":false,"truncated_body_text":null,"wordcount":7692,"post_preview_limit":0,"language":"en","postTags":[],"teaser_post_eligible":true,"postCountryBlocks":[],"headlineTest":null,"coverImagePalette":{"Vibrant":{"rgb":[229,151,9],"population":107},"DarkVibrant":{"rgb":[128,23,10],"population":202},"LightVibrant":{"rgb":[252,200,133],"population":28},"Muted":{"rgb":[154,111,94],"population":47},"DarkMuted":{"rgb":[141.91304347826087,25.499999999999993,11.086956521739124],"population":0},"LightMuted":{"rgb":[188,180,164],"population":1}},"publishedBylines":[{"id":12009663,"name":"Scott Alexander","handle":"astralcodexten","photo_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7b500d22-1176-42ad-afaa-5d72bc36a809_44x44.png","bio":null,"profile_set_up_at":"2021-04-16T05:06:04.745Z","reader_installed_at":null,"publicationUsers":[{"id":18921,"user_id":12009663,"publication_id":89120,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":true,"publication":{"id":89120,"name":"Astral Codex Ten","subdomain":"astralcodexten","custom_domain":"www.astralcodexten.com","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"P(A|B) = [P(A)*P(B|A)]/P(B), all the rest is commentary.","logo_url":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/430241cb-ade5-4316-b1c9-6e3fe6e63e5e_256x256.png","author_id":12009663,"primary_user_id":12009663,"theme_var_background_pop":"#67bdfc","created_at":"2020-08-30T04:18:18.308Z","email_from_name":"Astral Codex Ten","copyright":"Scott Alexander","founding_plan_name":"Founding Member","community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"enabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}},{"id":4774441,"user_id":12009663,"publication_id":3475640,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":false,"publication":{"id":3475640,"name":"AI Futures Project","subdomain":"aifutures1","custom_domain":"blog.aifutures.org","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"Preparing for a world with AGI","logo_url":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/3409cfd0-9243-479e-80f9-d0e3922c450a_132x132.png","author_id":1831134,"primary_user_id":1831134,"theme_var_background_pop":"#FF6719","created_at":"2024-12-06T19:32:31.188Z","email_from_name":"The AI Futures Project","copyright":"AI Futures Project","founding_plan_name":null,"community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"disabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}}],"is_guest":false,"bestseller_tier":1000,"status":{"bestsellerTier":1000,"subscriberTier":10,"leaderboard":null,"vip":false,"badge":{"type":"bestseller","tier":1000},"subscriber":null}}],"reaction":null,"reaction_count":758,"comment_count":665,"child_comment_count":131,"audio_items":[{"post_id":197056990,"voice_id":"en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural","audio_url":"https://substack-video.s3.amazonaws.com/video_upload/post/197056990/tts/e3abf133-9692-469e-94a6-5644af874eac/en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural.mp3","type":"tts","status":"completed"}],"is_geoblocked":false,"hasCashtag":false},{"id":199527345,"editor_v2":false,"publication_id":89120,"title":"Hidden Open Thread 435.5","social_title":"Hidden Open Thread 435.5","search_engine_title":null,"search_engine_description":null,"type":"newsletter","slug":"hidden-open-thread-4355","post_date":"2026-05-27T22:21:52.555Z","audience":"only_paid","podcast_duration":null,"video_upload_id":null,"podcast_upload_id":null,"write_comment_permissions":"only_paid","should_send_free_preview":false,"free_unlock_required":false,"default_comment_sort":"most_recent_first","canonical_url":"https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/hidden-open-thread-4355","section_id":null,"top_exclusions":[],"pins":[],"is_section_pinned":false,"section_slug":null,"section_name":null,"reactions":{"❤":11},"restacks":0,"restacked_post_id":null,"restacked_post_slug":null,"restacked_pub_name":null,"restacked_pub_logo_url":null,"subtitle":"...","cover_image":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/550c1360-7c28-4649-84f0-bc1c57185d82_612x583.jpeg","cover_image_is_square":false,"cover_image_is_explicit":false,"podcast_url":null,"videoUpload":null,"podcastFields":null,"podcast_preview_upload_id":null,"podcastUpload":null,"podcastPreviewUpload":null,"voiceover_upload_id":null,"voiceoverUpload":null,"has_voiceover":false,"description":"...","body_json":null,"body_html":null,"has_dynamic_content":false,"truncated_body_text":null,"wordcount":20,"post_preview_limit":0,"language":"en","postTags":[],"teaser_post_eligible":true,"postCountryBlocks":[],"headlineTest":null,"coverImagePalette":{"Vibrant":{"rgb":[129.375,129.375,125.625],"population":0},"DarkVibrant":{"rgb":[67.275,67.275,65.325],"population":0},"LightVibrant":{"rgb":[189.67499999999998,189.67499999999998,187.725],"population":0},"Muted":{"rgb":[124,124,124],"population":4},"DarkMuted":{"rgb":[68,68,68],"population":7},"LightMuted":{"rgb":[188,188,186],"population":5}},"publishedBylines":[{"id":12009663,"name":"Scott Alexander","handle":"astralcodexten","photo_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7b500d22-1176-42ad-afaa-5d72bc36a809_44x44.png","bio":null,"profile_set_up_at":"2021-04-16T05:06:04.745Z","reader_installed_at":null,"publicationUsers":[{"id":18921,"user_id":12009663,"publication_id":89120,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":true,"publication":{"id":89120,"name":"Astral Codex Ten","subdomain":"astralcodexten","custom_domain":"www.astralcodexten.com","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"P(A|B) = [P(A)*P(B|A)]/P(B), all the rest is commentary.","logo_url":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/430241cb-ade5-4316-b1c9-6e3fe6e63e5e_256x256.png","author_id":12009663,"primary_user_id":12009663,"theme_var_background_pop":"#67bdfc","created_at":"2020-08-30T04:18:18.308Z","email_from_name":"Astral Codex Ten","copyright":"Scott Alexander","founding_plan_name":"Founding Member","community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"enabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}},{"id":4774441,"user_id":12009663,"publication_id":3475640,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":false,"publication":{"id":3475640,"name":"AI Futures Project","subdomain":"aifutures1","custom_domain":"blog.aifutures.org","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"Preparing for a world with AGI","logo_url":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/3409cfd0-9243-479e-80f9-d0e3922c450a_132x132.png","author_id":1831134,"primary_user_id":1831134,"theme_var_background_pop":"#FF6719","created_at":"2024-12-06T19:32:31.188Z","email_from_name":"The AI Futures Project","copyright":"AI Futures Project","founding_plan_name":null,"community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"disabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}}],"is_guest":false,"bestseller_tier":1000,"status":{"bestsellerTier":1000,"subscriberTier":10,"leaderboard":null,"vip":false,"badge":{"type":"bestseller","tier":1000},"subscriber":null}}],"reaction":null,"reaction_count":11,"comment_count":62,"child_comment_count":12,"audio_items":[{"post_id":199527345,"voice_id":"en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural","audio_url":null,"type":"tts","status":"paywalled"}],"is_geoblocked":false,"hidden":true,"hasCashtag":false},{"id":199105654,"editor_v2":false,"publication_id":89120,"title":"Use AI This Election","social_title":"Use AI This Election","search_engine_title":null,"search_engine_description":null,"type":"newsletter","slug":"use-ai-this-election","post_date":"2026-05-26T20:22:30.159Z","audience":"everyone","podcast_duration":null,"video_upload_id":null,"podcast_upload_id":null,"write_comment_permissions":"everyone","should_send_free_preview":false,"free_unlock_required":false,"default_comment_sort":null,"canonical_url":"https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/use-ai-this-election","section_id":null,"top_exclusions":[],"pins":[],"is_section_pinned":false,"section_slug":null,"section_name":null,"reactions":{"❤":288},"restacks":16,"restacked_post_id":null,"restacked_post_slug":null,"restacked_pub_name":null,"restacked_pub_logo_url":null,"subtitle":"...","cover_image":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/8cc7d04b-3515-4a32-b9fc-85c2fc5fb909_2250x1500.jpeg","cover_image_is_square":false,"cover_image_is_explicit":false,"podcast_url":null,"videoUpload":null,"podcastFields":{"post_id":199105654,"podcast_episode_number":null,"podcast_season_number":null,"podcast_episode_type":null,"should_syndicate_to_other_feed":null,"syndicate_to_section_id":null,"hide_from_feed":false,"free_podcast_url":null,"free_podcast_duration":null,"preview_contains_ad":false,"was_imported_self_serve_sync":false,"draft_free_podcast_url":null,"draft_free_podcast_duration":null},"podcast_preview_upload_id":null,"podcastUpload":null,"podcastPreviewUpload":null,"voiceover_upload_id":null,"voiceoverUpload":null,"has_voiceover":false,"description":"...","body_json":null,"body_html":null,"has_dynamic_content":false,"truncated_body_text":null,"wordcount":3366,"post_preview_limit":0,"language":"en","postTags":[],"teaser_post_eligible":true,"postCountryBlocks":[],"headlineTest":null,"coverImagePalette":{"Vibrant":{"rgb":[152,116,68],"population":4},"DarkVibrant":{"rgb":[112,77,37],"population":9},"LightVibrant":{"rgb":[236,244,252],"population":1605},"Muted":{"rgb":[180,137,105],"population":237},"DarkMuted":{"rgb":[45,70,88],"population":19},"LightMuted":{"rgb":[204,164,180],"population":2}},"publishedBylines":[{"id":12009663,"name":"Scott Alexander","handle":"astralcodexten","photo_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7b500d22-1176-42ad-afaa-5d72bc36a809_44x44.png","bio":null,"profile_set_up_at":"2021-04-16T05:06:04.745Z","reader_installed_at":null,"publicationUsers":[{"id":18921,"user_id":12009663,"publication_id":89120,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":true,"publication":{"id":89120,"name":"Astral Codex Ten","subdomain":"astralcodexten","custom_domain":"www.astralcodexten.com","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"P(A|B) = [P(A)*P(B|A)]/P(B), all the rest is commentary.","logo_url":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/430241cb-ade5-4316-b1c9-6e3fe6e63e5e_256x256.png","author_id":12009663,"primary_user_id":12009663,"theme_var_background_pop":"#67bdfc","created_at":"2020-08-30T04:18:18.308Z","email_from_name":"Astral Codex Ten","copyright":"Scott Alexander","founding_plan_name":"Founding Member","community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"enabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}},{"id":4774441,"user_id":12009663,"publication_id":3475640,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":false,"publication":{"id":3475640,"name":"AI Futures Project","subdomain":"aifutures1","custom_domain":"blog.aifutures.org","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"Preparing for a world with AGI","logo_url":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/3409cfd0-9243-479e-80f9-d0e3922c450a_132x132.png","author_id":1831134,"primary_user_id":1831134,"theme_var_background_pop":"#FF6719","created_at":"2024-12-06T19:32:31.188Z","email_from_name":"The AI Futures Project","copyright":"AI Futures Project","founding_plan_name":null,"community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"disabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}}],"is_guest":false,"bestseller_tier":1000,"status":{"bestsellerTier":1000,"subscriberTier":10,"leaderboard":null,"vip":false,"badge":{"type":"bestseller","tier":1000},"subscriber":null}}],"reaction":null,"reaction_count":288,"comment_count":276,"child_comment_count":80,"audio_items":[{"post_id":199105654,"voice_id":"en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural","audio_url":"https://substack-video.s3.amazonaws.com/video_upload/post/199105654/tts/c49bd697-5295-47a2-8f74-e0b9b607aa32/en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural.mp3","type":"tts","status":"completed"}],"is_geoblocked":false,"hasCashtag":false},{"id":199202126,"editor_v2":false,"publication_id":89120,"title":"Open Thread 435","social_title":"Open Thread 435","search_engine_title":null,"search_engine_description":null,"type":"newsletter","slug":"open-thread-435","post_date":"2026-05-25T16:11:06.262Z","audience":"everyone","podcast_duration":null,"video_upload_id":null,"podcast_upload_id":null,"write_comment_permissions":"everyone","should_send_free_preview":false,"free_unlock_required":false,"default_comment_sort":"most_recent_first","canonical_url":"https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/open-thread-435","section_id":null,"top_exclusions":[],"pins":[],"is_section_pinned":false,"section_slug":null,"section_name":null,"reactions":{"❤":59},"restacks":2,"restacked_post_id":null,"restacked_post_slug":null,"restacked_pub_name":null,"restacked_pub_logo_url":null,"subtitle":"...","cover_image":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/06d5d0d9-e87e-425d-8fdc-4572e693952c_1536x1024.png","cover_image_is_square":false,"cover_image_is_explicit":false,"podcast_url":null,"videoUpload":null,"podcastFields":null,"podcast_preview_upload_id":null,"podcastUpload":null,"podcastPreviewUpload":null,"voiceover_upload_id":null,"voiceoverUpload":null,"has_voiceover":false,"description":"...","body_json":null,"body_html":null,"has_dynamic_content":false,"truncated_body_text":null,"wordcount":167,"post_preview_limit":0,"language":"en","postTags":[],"teaser_post_eligible":true,"postCountryBlocks":[],"headlineTest":null,"coverImagePalette":{"Vibrant":{"rgb":[215,56,13],"population":269},"DarkVibrant":{"rgb":[123,24,11],"population":283},"LightVibrant":{"rgb":[241,170,71],"population":645},"Muted":{"rgb":[86,160,162],"population":14},"DarkMuted":{"rgb":[52,92,54],"population":115},"LightMuted":{"rgb":[142.18181818181816,87.3181818181818,10.81818181818183],"population":0}},"publishedBylines":[{"id":12009663,"name":"Scott Alexander","handle":"astralcodexten","photo_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7b500d22-1176-42ad-afaa-5d72bc36a809_44x44.png","bio":null,"profile_set_up_at":"2021-04-16T05:06:04.745Z","reader_installed_at":null,"publicationUsers":[{"id":18921,"user_id":12009663,"publication_id":89120,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":true,"publication":{"id":89120,"name":"Astral Codex Ten","subdomain":"astralcodexten","custom_domain":"www.astralcodexten.com","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"P(A|B) = [P(A)*P(B|A)]/P(B), all the rest is commentary.","logo_url":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/430241cb-ade5-4316-b1c9-6e3fe6e63e5e_256x256.png","author_id":12009663,"primary_user_id":12009663,"theme_var_background_pop":"#67bdfc","created_at":"2020-08-30T04:18:18.308Z","email_from_name":"Astral Codex Ten","copyright":"Scott Alexander","founding_plan_name":"Founding Member","community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"enabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}},{"id":4774441,"user_id":12009663,"publication_id":3475640,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":false,"publication":{"id":3475640,"name":"AI Futures Project","subdomain":"aifutures1","custom_domain":"blog.aifutures.org","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"Preparing for a world with AGI","logo_url":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/3409cfd0-9243-479e-80f9-d0e3922c450a_132x132.png","author_id":1831134,"primary_user_id":1831134,"theme_var_background_pop":"#FF6719","created_at":"2024-12-06T19:32:31.188Z","email_from_name":"The AI Futures Project","copyright":"AI Futures Project","founding_plan_name":null,"community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"disabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}}],"is_guest":false,"bestseller_tier":1000,"status":{"bestsellerTier":1000,"subscriberTier":10,"leaderboard":null,"vip":false,"badge":{"type":"bestseller","tier":1000},"subscriber":null}}],"reaction":null,"reaction_count":59,"comment_count":672,"child_comment_count":54,"audio_items":[{"post_id":199202126,"voice_id":"en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural","audio_url":"https://substack-video.s3.amazonaws.com/video_upload/post/199202126/tts/fed44b7f-a320-4ccf-be00-07212e4d6d92/en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural.mp3","type":"tts","status":"completed"}],"is_geoblocked":false,"hasCashtag":false},{"id":196747861,"editor_v2":false,"publication_id":89120,"title":"New Paradigms Won't Save You","social_title":"New Paradigms Won't Save You","search_engine_title":null,"search_engine_description":null,"type":"newsletter","slug":"new-paradigms-wont-save-you","post_date":"2026-05-22T08:49:25.555Z","audience":"everyone","podcast_duration":null,"video_upload_id":null,"podcast_upload_id":null,"write_comment_permissions":"everyone","should_send_free_preview":false,"free_unlock_required":false,"default_comment_sort":null,"canonical_url":"https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/new-paradigms-wont-save-you","section_id":null,"top_exclusions":[],"pins":[],"is_section_pinned":false,"section_slug":null,"section_name":null,"reactions":{"❤":314},"restacks":23,"restacked_post_id":null,"restacked_post_slug":null,"restacked_pub_name":null,"restacked_pub_logo_url":null,"subtitle":"...","cover_image":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/67ee49d9-a5b9-4427-911e-0752e184f48a_1005x516.png","cover_image_is_square":false,"cover_image_is_explicit":false,"podcast_url":null,"videoUpload":null,"podcastFields":{"post_id":196747861,"podcast_episode_number":null,"podcast_season_number":null,"podcast_episode_type":null,"should_syndicate_to_other_feed":null,"syndicate_to_section_id":null,"hide_from_feed":false,"free_podcast_url":null,"free_podcast_duration":null,"preview_contains_ad":false,"was_imported_self_serve_sync":false,"draft_free_podcast_url":null,"draft_free_podcast_duration":null},"podcast_preview_upload_id":null,"podcastUpload":null,"podcastPreviewUpload":null,"voiceover_upload_id":null,"voiceoverUpload":null,"has_voiceover":false,"description":"...","body_json":null,"body_html":null,"has_dynamic_content":false,"truncated_body_text":null,"wordcount":830,"post_preview_limit":0,"language":"en","postTags":[],"teaser_post_eligible":true,"postCountryBlocks":[],"headlineTest":null,"coverImagePalette":{"Vibrant":{"rgb":[196,140,68],"population":2},"DarkVibrant":{"rgb":[100.79756097560976,70.61219512195123,31.802439024390253],"population":0},"LightVibrant":{"rgb":[244,196,132],"population":2},"Muted":{"rgb":[116,156,92],"population":1},"DarkMuted":{"rgb":[107,111,118],"population":83},"LightMuted":{"rgb":[204,201,173],"population":9}},"publishedBylines":[{"id":12009663,"name":"Scott Alexander","handle":"astralcodexten","photo_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7b500d22-1176-42ad-afaa-5d72bc36a809_44x44.png","bio":null,"profile_set_up_at":"2021-04-16T05:06:04.745Z","reader_installed_at":null,"publicationUsers":[{"id":18921,"user_id":12009663,"publication_id":89120,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":true,"publication":{"id":89120,"name":"Astral Codex Ten","subdomain":"astralcodexten","custom_domain":"www.astralcodexten.com","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"P(A|B) = [P(A)*P(B|A)]/P(B), all the rest is commentary.","logo_url":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/430241cb-ade5-4316-b1c9-6e3fe6e63e5e_256x256.png","author_id":12009663,"primary_user_id":12009663,"theme_var_background_pop":"#67bdfc","created_at":"2020-08-30T04:18:18.308Z","email_from_name":"Astral Codex Ten","copyright":"Scott Alexander","founding_plan_name":"Founding Member","community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"enabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}},{"id":4774441,"user_id":12009663,"publication_id":3475640,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":false,"publication":{"id":3475640,"name":"AI Futures Project","subdomain":"aifutures1","custom_domain":"blog.aifutures.org","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"Preparing for a world with AGI","logo_url":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/3409cfd0-9243-479e-80f9-d0e3922c450a_132x132.png","author_id":1831134,"primary_user_id":1831134,"theme_var_background_pop":"#FF6719","created_at":"2024-12-06T19:32:31.188Z","email_from_name":"The AI Futures Project","copyright":"AI Futures Project","founding_plan_name":null,"community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"disabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}}],"is_guest":false,"bestseller_tier":1000,"status":{"bestsellerTier":1000,"subscriberTier":10,"leaderboard":null,"vip":false,"badge":{"type":"bestseller","tier":1000},"subscriber":null}}],"reaction":null,"reaction_count":314,"comment_count":415,"child_comment_count":94,"audio_items":[{"post_id":196747861,"voice_id":"en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural","audio_url":"https://substack-video.s3.amazonaws.com/video_upload/post/196747861/tts/5102e288-c32c-4274-a4b3-2f4af0617ce1/en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural.mp3","type":"tts","status":"completed"}],"is_geoblocked":false,"hasCashtag":false},{"id":198636142,"editor_v2":false,"publication_id":89120,"title":"Hidden Open Thread 434.5","social_title":"Hidden Open Thread 434.5","search_engine_title":null,"search_engine_description":null,"type":"newsletter","slug":"hidden-open-thread-4345","post_date":"2026-05-21T00:10:27.196Z","audience":"only_paid","podcast_duration":null,"video_upload_id":null,"podcast_upload_id":null,"write_comment_permissions":"only_paid","should_send_free_preview":false,"free_unlock_required":false,"default_comment_sort":"most_recent_first","canonical_url":"https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/hidden-open-thread-4345","section_id":null,"top_exclusions":[],"pins":[],"is_section_pinned":false,"section_slug":null,"section_name":null,"reactions":{"❤":11},"restacks":0,"restacked_post_id":null,"restacked_post_slug":null,"restacked_pub_name":null,"restacked_pub_logo_url":null,"subtitle":"...","cover_image":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/31cb65c5-c6b5-4623-b5e8-ac38bb43c1dc_612x583.jpeg","cover_image_is_square":false,"cover_image_is_explicit":false,"podcast_url":null,"videoUpload":null,"podcastFields":null,"podcast_preview_upload_id":null,"podcastUpload":null,"podcastPreviewUpload":null,"voiceover_upload_id":null,"voiceoverUpload":null,"has_voiceover":false,"description":"...","body_json":null,"body_html":null,"has_dynamic_content":false,"truncated_body_text":null,"wordcount":20,"post_preview_limit":0,"language":null,"postTags":[],"teaser_post_eligible":true,"postCountryBlocks":[],"headlineTest":null,"coverImagePalette":{"Vibrant":{"rgb":[129.375,129.375,125.625],"population":0},"DarkVibrant":{"rgb":[67.275,67.275,65.325],"population":0},"LightVibrant":{"rgb":[189.67499999999998,189.67499999999998,187.725],"population":0},"Muted":{"rgb":[124,124,124],"population":4},"DarkMuted":{"rgb":[68,68,68],"population":7},"LightMuted":{"rgb":[188,188,186],"population":5}},"publishedBylines":[{"id":12009663,"name":"Scott Alexander","handle":"astralcodexten","photo_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7b500d22-1176-42ad-afaa-5d72bc36a809_44x44.png","bio":null,"profile_set_up_at":"2021-04-16T05:06:04.745Z","reader_installed_at":null,"publicationUsers":[{"id":18921,"user_id":12009663,"publication_id":89120,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":true,"publication":{"id":89120,"name":"Astral Codex Ten","subdomain":"astralcodexten","custom_domain":"www.astralcodexten.com","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"P(A|B) = [P(A)*P(B|A)]/P(B), all the rest is commentary.","logo_url":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/430241cb-ade5-4316-b1c9-6e3fe6e63e5e_256x256.png","author_id":12009663,"primary_user_id":12009663,"theme_var_background_pop":"#67bdfc","created_at":"2020-08-30T04:18:18.308Z","email_from_name":"Astral Codex Ten","copyright":"Scott Alexander","founding_plan_name":"Founding Member","community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"enabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}},{"id":4774441,"user_id":12009663,"publication_id":3475640,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":false,"publication":{"id":3475640,"name":"AI Futures Project","subdomain":"aifutures1","custom_domain":"blog.aifutures.org","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"Preparing for a world with AGI","logo_url":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/3409cfd0-9243-479e-80f9-d0e3922c450a_132x132.png","author_id":1831134,"primary_user_id":1831134,"theme_var_background_pop":"#FF6719","created_at":"2024-12-06T19:32:31.188Z","email_from_name":"The AI Futures Project","copyright":"AI Futures Project","founding_plan_name":null,"community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"disabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}}],"is_guest":false,"bestseller_tier":1000,"status":{"bestsellerTier":1000,"subscriberTier":10,"leaderboard":null,"vip":false,"badge":{"type":"bestseller","tier":1000},"subscriber":null}}],"reaction":null,"reaction_count":11,"comment_count":142,"child_comment_count":13,"audio_items":[{"post_id":198636142,"voice_id":"en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural","audio_url":null,"type":"tts","status":"paywalled"}],"is_geoblocked":false,"hidden":true,"hasCashtag":false},{"id":197339013,"editor_v2":false,"publication_id":89120,"title":"The Types Of Candidate You Find In The California Gubernatorial Race","social_title":null,"search_engine_title":null,"search_engine_description":null,"type":"newsletter","slug":"the-types-of-candidate-you-find-in","post_date":"2026-05-19T10:19:35.129Z","audience":"everyone","podcast_duration":null,"video_upload_id":null,"podcast_upload_id":null,"write_comment_permissions":"everyone","should_send_free_preview":false,"free_unlock_required":false,"default_comment_sort":null,"canonical_url":"https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/the-types-of-candidate-you-find-in","section_id":null,"top_exclusions":[],"pins":[],"is_section_pinned":false,"section_slug":null,"section_name":null,"reactions":{"❤":418},"restacks":19,"restacked_post_id":null,"restacked_post_slug":null,"restacked_pub_name":null,"restacked_pub_logo_url":null,"subtitle":"...","cover_image":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!POYh!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa066abf9-1a22-4cfc-8faa-92552a5459d9_701x663.png","cover_image_is_square":false,"cover_image_is_explicit":false,"podcast_url":null,"videoUpload":null,"podcastFields":{"post_id":197339013,"podcast_episode_number":null,"podcast_season_number":null,"podcast_episode_type":null,"should_syndicate_to_other_feed":null,"syndicate_to_section_id":null,"hide_from_feed":false,"free_podcast_url":null,"free_podcast_duration":null,"preview_contains_ad":false,"was_imported_self_serve_sync":false,"draft_free_podcast_url":null,"draft_free_podcast_duration":null},"podcast_preview_upload_id":null,"podcastUpload":null,"podcastPreviewUpload":null,"voiceover_upload_id":null,"voiceoverUpload":null,"has_voiceover":false,"description":"...","body_json":null,"body_html":null,"has_dynamic_content":false,"truncated_body_text":null,"wordcount":4810,"post_preview_limit":0,"language":"en","postTags":[],"teaser_post_eligible":true,"postCountryBlocks":[],"headlineTest":null,"coverImagePalette":{"Vibrant":{"rgb":[189,131,102],"population":275},"DarkVibrant":{"rgb":[36,84,113],"population":1105},"LightVibrant":{"rgb":[238,241,249],"population":1187},"Muted":{"rgb":[84,116,148],"population":1},"DarkMuted":{"rgb":[52,91,115],"population":33},"LightMuted":{"rgb":[185,192,205],"population":31}},"publishedBylines":[{"id":12009663,"name":"Scott Alexander","handle":"astralcodexten","photo_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7b500d22-1176-42ad-afaa-5d72bc36a809_44x44.png","bio":null,"profile_set_up_at":"2021-04-16T05:06:04.745Z","reader_installed_at":null,"publicationUsers":[{"id":18921,"user_id":12009663,"publication_id":89120,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":true,"publication":{"id":89120,"name":"Astral Codex Ten","subdomain":"astralcodexten","custom_domain":"www.astralcodexten.com","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"P(A|B) = [P(A)*P(B|A)]/P(B), all the rest is commentary.","logo_url":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/430241cb-ade5-4316-b1c9-6e3fe6e63e5e_256x256.png","author_id":12009663,"primary_user_id":12009663,"theme_var_background_pop":"#67bdfc","created_at":"2020-08-30T04:18:18.308Z","email_from_name":"Astral Codex Ten","copyright":"Scott Alexander","founding_plan_name":"Founding Member","community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"enabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}},{"id":4774441,"user_id":12009663,"publication_id":3475640,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":false,"publication":{"id":3475640,"name":"AI Futures Project","subdomain":"aifutures1","custom_domain":"blog.aifutures.org","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"Preparing for a world with AGI","logo_url":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/3409cfd0-9243-479e-80f9-d0e3922c450a_132x132.png","author_id":1831134,"primary_user_id":1831134,"theme_var_background_pop":"#FF6719","created_at":"2024-12-06T19:32:31.188Z","email_from_name":"The AI Futures Project","copyright":"AI Futures Project","founding_plan_name":null,"community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"disabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}}],"is_guest":false,"bestseller_tier":1000,"status":{"bestsellerTier":1000,"subscriberTier":10,"leaderboard":null,"vip":false,"badge":{"type":"bestseller","tier":1000},"subscriber":null}}],"reaction":null,"reaction_count":418,"comment_count":333,"child_comment_count":94,"audio_items":[{"post_id":197339013,"voice_id":"en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural","audio_url":"https://substack-video.s3.amazonaws.com/video_upload/post/197339013/tts/d76b52de-9ee8-4a97-b8cd-8d981101eb84/en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural.mp3","type":"tts","status":"completed"}],"is_geoblocked":false,"hasCashtag":false},{"id":198257206,"editor_v2":false,"publication_id":89120,"title":"Open Thread 434","social_title":"Open Thread 434","search_engine_title":null,"search_engine_description":null,"type":"newsletter","slug":"open-thread-434","post_date":"2026-05-18T15:03:49.030Z","audience":"everyone","podcast_duration":null,"video_upload_id":null,"podcast_upload_id":null,"write_comment_permissions":"everyone","should_send_free_preview":false,"free_unlock_required":false,"default_comment_sort":"most_recent_first","canonical_url":"https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/open-thread-434","section_id":null,"top_exclusions":[],"pins":[],"is_section_pinned":false,"section_slug":null,"section_name":null,"reactions":{"❤":59},"restacks":6,"restacked_post_id":null,"restacked_post_slug":null,"restacked_pub_name":null,"restacked_pub_logo_url":null,"subtitle":"...","cover_image":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/aea5caf3-d905-4d28-b877-f0428dcde919_1536x1024.png","cover_image_is_square":false,"cover_image_is_explicit":false,"podcast_url":null,"videoUpload":null,"podcastFields":null,"podcast_preview_upload_id":null,"podcastUpload":null,"podcastPreviewUpload":null,"voiceover_upload_id":null,"voiceoverUpload":null,"has_voiceover":false,"description":"...","body_json":null,"body_html":null,"has_dynamic_content":false,"truncated_body_text":null,"wordcount":317,"post_preview_limit":0,"language":"en","postTags":[],"teaser_post_eligible":true,"postCountryBlocks":[],"headlineTest":null,"coverImagePalette":{"Vibrant":{"rgb":[215,56,13],"population":269},"DarkVibrant":{"rgb":[123,24,11],"population":283},"LightVibrant":{"rgb":[241,170,71],"population":645},"Muted":{"rgb":[86,160,162],"population":14},"DarkMuted":{"rgb":[52,92,54],"population":115},"LightMuted":{"rgb":[142.18181818181816,87.3181818181818,10.81818181818183],"population":0}},"publishedBylines":[{"id":12009663,"name":"Scott Alexander","handle":"astralcodexten","photo_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7b500d22-1176-42ad-afaa-5d72bc36a809_44x44.png","bio":null,"profile_set_up_at":"2021-04-16T05:06:04.745Z","reader_installed_at":null,"publicationUsers":[{"id":18921,"user_id":12009663,"publication_id":89120,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":true,"publication":{"id":89120,"name":"Astral Codex Ten","subdomain":"astralcodexten","custom_domain":"www.astralcodexten.com","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"P(A|B) = [P(A)*P(B|A)]/P(B), all the rest is commentary.","logo_url":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/430241cb-ade5-4316-b1c9-6e3fe6e63e5e_256x256.png","author_id":12009663,"primary_user_id":12009663,"theme_var_background_pop":"#67bdfc","created_at":"2020-08-30T04:18:18.308Z","email_from_name":"Astral Codex Ten","copyright":"Scott Alexander","founding_plan_name":"Founding Member","community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"enabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}},{"id":4774441,"user_id":12009663,"publication_id":3475640,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":false,"publication":{"id":3475640,"name":"AI Futures Project","subdomain":"aifutures1","custom_domain":"blog.aifutures.org","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"Preparing for a world with AGI","logo_url":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/3409cfd0-9243-479e-80f9-d0e3922c450a_132x132.png","author_id":1831134,"primary_user_id":1831134,"theme_var_background_pop":"#FF6719","created_at":"2024-12-06T19:32:31.188Z","email_from_name":"The AI Futures Project","copyright":"AI Futures Project","founding_plan_name":null,"community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"disabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}}],"is_guest":false,"bestseller_tier":1000,"status":{"bestsellerTier":1000,"subscriberTier":10,"leaderboard":null,"vip":false,"badge":{"type":"bestseller","tier":1000},"subscriber":null}}],"reaction":null,"reaction_count":59,"comment_count":570,"child_comment_count":53,"audio_items":[{"post_id":198257206,"voice_id":"en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural","audio_url":"https://substack-video.s3.amazonaws.com/video_upload/post/198257206/tts/8cc44c0b-cc88-4e3d-8c47-ace6a5f2fc54/en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural.mp3","type":"tts","status":"completed"}],"is_geoblocked":false,"hasCashtag":false},{"id":188888745,"editor_v2":false,"publication_id":89120,"title":"The Sigmoids Won't Save You","social_title":"The Sigmoids Won't Save You","search_engine_title":null,"search_engine_description":null,"type":"newsletter","slug":"the-sigmoids-wont-save-you","post_date":"2026-05-15T08:55:10.585Z","audience":"everyone","podcast_duration":null,"video_upload_id":null,"podcast_upload_id":null,"write_comment_permissions":"everyone","should_send_free_preview":false,"free_unlock_required":false,"default_comment_sort":null,"canonical_url":"https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/the-sigmoids-wont-save-you","section_id":null,"top_exclusions":[],"pins":[],"is_section_pinned":false,"section_slug":null,"section_name":null,"reactions":{"❤":605},"restacks":40,"restacked_post_id":null,"restacked_post_slug":null,"restacked_pub_name":null,"restacked_pub_logo_url":null,"subtitle":"...","cover_image":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/a6fa0283-2093-481c-a484-dd86d2cc67cf_1024x562.png","cover_image_is_square":false,"cover_image_is_explicit":false,"podcast_url":null,"videoUpload":null,"podcastFields":{"post_id":188888745,"podcast_episode_number":null,"podcast_season_number":null,"podcast_episode_type":null,"should_syndicate_to_other_feed":null,"syndicate_to_section_id":null,"hide_from_feed":false,"free_podcast_url":null,"free_podcast_duration":null,"preview_contains_ad":false,"was_imported_self_serve_sync":false,"draft_free_podcast_url":null,"draft_free_podcast_duration":null},"podcast_preview_upload_id":null,"podcastUpload":null,"podcastPreviewUpload":null,"voiceover_upload_id":null,"voiceoverUpload":null,"has_voiceover":false,"description":"...","body_json":null,"body_html":null,"has_dynamic_content":false,"truncated_body_text":null,"wordcount":1252,"post_preview_limit":0,"language":"en","postTags":[],"teaser_post_eligible":true,"postCountryBlocks":[],"headlineTest":null,"coverImagePalette":{"Vibrant":{"rgb":[111,91,228],"population":51},"DarkVibrant":{"rgb":[32.62931937172773,18.744502617801047,113.85549738219896],"population":0},"LightVibrant":{"rgb":[148,132,234],"population":4},"Muted":{"rgb":[111,109,135],"population":5},"DarkMuted":{"rgb":[37.64921465968583,21.628272251308886,131.37172774869111],"population":0},"LightMuted":{"rgb":[171,167,207],"population":71}},"publishedBylines":[{"id":12009663,"name":"Scott Alexander","handle":"astralcodexten","photo_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7b500d22-1176-42ad-afaa-5d72bc36a809_44x44.png","bio":null,"profile_set_up_at":"2021-04-16T05:06:04.745Z","reader_installed_at":null,"publicationUsers":[{"id":18921,"user_id":12009663,"publication_id":89120,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":true,"publication":{"id":89120,"name":"Astral Codex Ten","subdomain":"astralcodexten","custom_domain":"www.astralcodexten.com","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"P(A|B) = [P(A)*P(B|A)]/P(B), all the rest is commentary.","logo_url":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/430241cb-ade5-4316-b1c9-6e3fe6e63e5e_256x256.png","author_id":12009663,"primary_user_id":12009663,"theme_var_background_pop":"#67bdfc","created_at":"2020-08-30T04:18:18.308Z","email_from_name":"Astral Codex Ten","copyright":"Scott Alexander","founding_plan_name":"Founding Member","community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"enabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}},{"id":4774441,"user_id":12009663,"publication_id":3475640,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":false,"publication":{"id":3475640,"name":"AI Futures Project","subdomain":"aifutures1","custom_domain":"blog.aifutures.org","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"Preparing for a world with AGI","logo_url":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/3409cfd0-9243-479e-80f9-d0e3922c450a_132x132.png","author_id":1831134,"primary_user_id":1831134,"theme_var_background_pop":"#FF6719","created_at":"2024-12-06T19:32:31.188Z","email_from_name":"The AI Futures Project","copyright":"AI Futures Project","founding_plan_name":null,"community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"disabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}}],"is_guest":false,"bestseller_tier":1000,"status":{"bestsellerTier":1000,"subscriberTier":10,"leaderboard":null,"vip":false,"badge":{"type":"bestseller","tier":1000},"subscriber":null}}],"reaction":null,"reaction_count":605,"comment_count":481,"child_comment_count":92,"audio_items":[{"post_id":188888745,"voice_id":"en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural","audio_url":"https://substack-video.s3.amazonaws.com/video_upload/post/188888745/tts/dacccf39-d17a-4e16-a460-86a6ea185812/en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural.mp3","type":"tts","status":"completed"}],"is_geoblocked":false,"hasCashtag":false},{"id":191474068,"editor_v2":false,"publication_id":89120,"title":"Every Magazine Piece On The SF AI Scene","social_title":"Every Magazine Piece On The SF AI Scene","search_engine_title":null,"search_engine_description":null,"type":"newsletter","slug":"every-magazine-piece-on-the-sf-ai","post_date":"2026-05-14T05:40:29.756Z","audience":"only_paid","podcast_duration":null,"video_upload_id":null,"podcast_upload_id":null,"write_comment_permissions":"only_paid","should_send_free_preview":false,"free_unlock_required":false,"default_comment_sort":null,"canonical_url":"https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/every-magazine-piece-on-the-sf-ai","section_id":null,"top_exclusions":[],"pins":[],"is_section_pinned":false,"section_slug":null,"section_name":null,"reactions":{"❤":251},"restacks":6,"restacked_post_id":null,"restacked_post_slug":null,"restacked_pub_name":null,"restacked_pub_logo_url":null,"subtitle":"...","cover_image":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/614fbd25-efd3-4ecb-bdde-226c582237b4_640x426.jpeg","cover_image_is_square":false,"cover_image_is_explicit":false,"podcast_url":null,"videoUpload":null,"podcastFields":{"post_id":191474068,"podcast_episode_number":null,"podcast_season_number":null,"podcast_episode_type":null,"should_syndicate_to_other_feed":null,"syndicate_to_section_id":null,"hide_from_feed":false,"free_podcast_url":null,"free_podcast_duration":null,"preview_contains_ad":false,"was_imported_self_serve_sync":false,"draft_free_podcast_url":null,"draft_free_podcast_duration":null},"podcast_preview_upload_id":null,"podcastUpload":null,"podcastPreviewUpload":null,"voiceover_upload_id":null,"voiceoverUpload":null,"has_voiceover":false,"description":"...","body_json":null,"body_html":null,"has_dynamic_content":false,"truncated_body_text":null,"wordcount":1202,"post_preview_limit":0,"language":"en","postTags":[],"teaser_post_eligible":true,"postCountryBlocks":[],"headlineTest":null,"coverImagePalette":{"Vibrant":{"rgb":[232,53,59],"population":150},"DarkVibrant":{"rgb":[10,36,102],"population":4},"LightVibrant":{"rgb":[220,252,220],"population":1150},"Muted":{"rgb":[92,156,118],"population":3},"DarkMuted":{"rgb":[59,66,64],"population":479},"LightMuted":{"rgb":[171,206,177],"population":324}},"publishedBylines":[{"id":12009663,"name":"Scott Alexander","handle":"astralcodexten","photo_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7b500d22-1176-42ad-afaa-5d72bc36a809_44x44.png","bio":null,"profile_set_up_at":"2021-04-16T05:06:04.745Z","reader_installed_at":null,"publicationUsers":[{"id":18921,"user_id":12009663,"publication_id":89120,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":true,"publication":{"id":89120,"name":"Astral Codex Ten","subdomain":"astralcodexten","custom_domain":"www.astralcodexten.com","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"P(A|B) = [P(A)*P(B|A)]/P(B), all the rest is commentary.","logo_url":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/430241cb-ade5-4316-b1c9-6e3fe6e63e5e_256x256.png","author_id":12009663,"primary_user_id":12009663,"theme_var_background_pop":"#67bdfc","created_at":"2020-08-30T04:18:18.308Z","email_from_name":"Astral Codex Ten","copyright":"Scott Alexander","founding_plan_name":"Founding Member","community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"enabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}},{"id":4774441,"user_id":12009663,"publication_id":3475640,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":false,"publication":{"id":3475640,"name":"AI Futures Project","subdomain":"aifutures1","custom_domain":"blog.aifutures.org","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"Preparing for a world with AGI","logo_url":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/3409cfd0-9243-479e-80f9-d0e3922c450a_132x132.png","author_id":1831134,"primary_user_id":1831134,"theme_var_background_pop":"#FF6719","created_at":"2024-12-06T19:32:31.188Z","email_from_name":"The AI Futures Project","copyright":"AI Futures Project","founding_plan_name":null,"community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"disabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}}],"is_guest":false,"bestseller_tier":1000,"status":{"bestsellerTier":1000,"subscriberTier":10,"leaderboard":null,"vip":false,"badge":{"type":"bestseller","tier":1000},"subscriber":null}}],"reaction":null,"reaction_count":251,"comment_count":71,"child_comment_count":29,"audio_items":[{"post_id":191474068,"voice_id":"en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural","audio_url":null,"type":"tts","status":"paywalled"}],"is_geoblocked":false,"hidden":true,"hasCashtag":false},{"id":188135538,"editor_v2":false,"publication_id":89120,"title":"Nostalgebraist's Hydrogen Jukeboxes","social_title":"Nostalgebraist's Hydrogen Jukeboxes","search_engine_title":null,"search_engine_description":null,"type":"newsletter","slug":"nostalgebraists-hydrogen-jukeboxes","post_date":"2026-05-13T12:16:41.649Z","audience":"everyone","podcast_duration":null,"video_upload_id":null,"podcast_upload_id":null,"write_comment_permissions":"everyone","should_send_free_preview":false,"free_unlock_required":false,"default_comment_sort":null,"canonical_url":"https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/nostalgebraists-hydrogen-jukeboxes","section_id":null,"top_exclusions":[],"pins":[],"is_section_pinned":false,"section_slug":null,"section_name":null,"reactions":{"❤":384},"restacks":28,"restacked_post_id":null,"restacked_post_slug":null,"restacked_pub_name":null,"restacked_pub_logo_url":null,"subtitle":"...","cover_image":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/a4d8bd9f-bc37-412d-8a0f-f6fa8df3c655_318x158.jpeg","cover_image_is_square":false,"cover_image_is_explicit":false,"podcast_url":null,"videoUpload":null,"podcastFields":{"post_id":188135538,"podcast_episode_number":null,"podcast_season_number":null,"podcast_episode_type":null,"should_syndicate_to_other_feed":null,"syndicate_to_section_id":null,"hide_from_feed":false,"free_podcast_url":null,"free_podcast_duration":null,"preview_contains_ad":false,"was_imported_self_serve_sync":false,"draft_free_podcast_url":null,"draft_free_podcast_duration":null},"podcast_preview_upload_id":null,"podcastUpload":null,"podcastPreviewUpload":null,"voiceover_upload_id":null,"voiceoverUpload":null,"has_voiceover":false,"description":"...","body_json":null,"body_html":null,"has_dynamic_content":false,"truncated_body_text":null,"wordcount":2309,"post_preview_limit":0,"language":"en","postTags":[],"teaser_post_eligible":true,"postCountryBlocks":[],"headlineTest":null,"coverImagePalette":{"Vibrant":{"rgb":[18,174,235],"population":129},"DarkVibrant":{"rgb":[36,135,185],"population":363},"LightVibrant":{"rgb":[141,228,244],"population":5},"Muted":{"rgb":[159,119,175],"population":336},"DarkMuted":{"rgb":[51,50,59],"population":73},"LightMuted":{"rgb":[172,211,175],"population":32}},"publishedBylines":[{"id":12009663,"name":"Scott Alexander","handle":"astralcodexten","photo_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7b500d22-1176-42ad-afaa-5d72bc36a809_44x44.png","bio":null,"profile_set_up_at":"2021-04-16T05:06:04.745Z","reader_installed_at":null,"publicationUsers":[{"id":18921,"user_id":12009663,"publication_id":89120,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":true,"publication":{"id":89120,"name":"Astral Codex Ten","subdomain":"astralcodexten","custom_domain":"www.astralcodexten.com","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"P(A|B) = [P(A)*P(B|A)]/P(B), all the rest is commentary.","logo_url":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/430241cb-ade5-4316-b1c9-6e3fe6e63e5e_256x256.png","author_id":12009663,"primary_user_id":12009663,"theme_var_background_pop":"#67bdfc","created_at":"2020-08-30T04:18:18.308Z","email_from_name":"Astral Codex Ten","copyright":"Scott Alexander","founding_plan_name":"Founding Member","community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"enabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}},{"id":4774441,"user_id":12009663,"publication_id":3475640,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":false,"publication":{"id":3475640,"name":"AI Futures Project","subdomain":"aifutures1","custom_domain":"blog.aifutures.org","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"Preparing for a world with AGI","logo_url":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/3409cfd0-9243-479e-80f9-d0e3922c450a_132x132.png","author_id":1831134,"primary_user_id":1831134,"theme_var_background_pop":"#FF6719","created_at":"2024-12-06T19:32:31.188Z","email_from_name":"The AI Futures Project","copyright":"AI Futures Project","founding_plan_name":null,"community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"disabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}}],"is_guest":false,"bestseller_tier":1000,"status":{"bestsellerTier":1000,"subscriberTier":10,"leaderboard":null,"vip":false,"badge":{"type":"bestseller","tier":1000},"subscriber":null}}],"reaction":null,"reaction_count":384,"comment_count":636,"child_comment_count":134,"audio_items":[{"post_id":188135538,"voice_id":"en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural","audio_url":"https://substack-video.s3.amazonaws.com/video_upload/post/188135538/tts/55d09f12-c3e0-47c9-9aaa-ff744d27ad6a/en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural.mp3","type":"tts","status":"completed"}],"is_geoblocked":false,"hasCashtag":false},{"id":197186925,"editor_v2":false,"publication_id":89120,"title":"Open Thread 433","social_title":"Open Thread 433","search_engine_title":null,"search_engine_description":null,"type":"newsletter","slug":"open-thread-433","post_date":"2026-05-11T08:43:51.779Z","audience":"everyone","podcast_duration":null,"video_upload_id":null,"podcast_upload_id":null,"write_comment_permissions":"everyone","should_send_free_preview":false,"free_unlock_required":false,"default_comment_sort":"most_recent_first","canonical_url":"https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/open-thread-433","section_id":null,"top_exclusions":[],"pins":[],"is_section_pinned":false,"section_slug":null,"section_name":null,"reactions":{"❤":72},"restacks":5,"restacked_post_id":null,"restacked_post_slug":null,"restacked_pub_name":null,"restacked_pub_logo_url":null,"subtitle":"...","cover_image":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/c80d88f2-2baf-42d6-acf0-221887e9118c_740x493.jpeg","cover_image_is_square":false,"cover_image_is_explicit":false,"podcast_url":null,"videoUpload":null,"podcastFields":{"post_id":197186925,"podcast_episode_number":null,"podcast_season_number":null,"podcast_episode_type":null,"should_syndicate_to_other_feed":null,"syndicate_to_section_id":null,"hide_from_feed":false,"free_podcast_url":null,"free_podcast_duration":null,"preview_contains_ad":false,"was_imported_self_serve_sync":false,"draft_free_podcast_url":null,"draft_free_podcast_duration":null},"podcast_preview_upload_id":null,"podcastUpload":null,"podcastPreviewUpload":null,"voiceover_upload_id":null,"voiceoverUpload":null,"has_voiceover":false,"description":"...","body_json":null,"body_html":null,"has_dynamic_content":false,"truncated_body_text":null,"wordcount":283,"post_preview_limit":0,"language":"en","postTags":[],"teaser_post_eligible":true,"postCountryBlocks":[],"headlineTest":null,"coverImagePalette":{"Vibrant":{"rgb":[127.5,127.5,127.5],"population":0},"DarkVibrant":{"rgb":[66.3,66.3,66.3],"population":0},"LightVibrant":{"rgb":[188.7,188.7,188.7],"population":0},"Muted":{"rgb":[132,132,132],"population":259},"DarkMuted":{"rgb":[68,68,68],"population":200},"LightMuted":{"rgb":[195,195,195],"population":392}},"publishedBylines":[{"id":12009663,"name":"Scott Alexander","handle":"astralcodexten","photo_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7b500d22-1176-42ad-afaa-5d72bc36a809_44x44.png","bio":null,"profile_set_up_at":"2021-04-16T05:06:04.745Z","reader_installed_at":null,"publicationUsers":[{"id":18921,"user_id":12009663,"publication_id":89120,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":true,"publication":{"id":89120,"name":"Astral Codex Ten","subdomain":"astralcodexten","custom_domain":"www.astralcodexten.com","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"P(A|B) = [P(A)*P(B|A)]/P(B), all the rest is commentary.","logo_url":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/430241cb-ade5-4316-b1c9-6e3fe6e63e5e_256x256.png","author_id":12009663,"primary_user_id":12009663,"theme_var_background_pop":"#67bdfc","created_at":"2020-08-30T04:18:18.308Z","email_from_name":"Astral Codex Ten","copyright":"Scott Alexander","founding_plan_name":"Founding Member","community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"enabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}},{"id":4774441,"user_id":12009663,"publication_id":3475640,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":false,"publication":{"id":3475640,"name":"AI Futures Project","subdomain":"aifutures1","custom_domain":"blog.aifutures.org","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"Preparing for a world with AGI","logo_url":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/3409cfd0-9243-479e-80f9-d0e3922c450a_132x132.png","author_id":1831134,"primary_user_id":1831134,"theme_var_background_pop":"#FF6719","created_at":"2024-12-06T19:32:31.188Z","email_from_name":"The AI Futures Project","copyright":"AI Futures Project","founding_plan_name":null,"community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"disabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}}],"is_guest":false,"bestseller_tier":1000,"status":{"bestsellerTier":1000,"subscriberTier":10,"leaderboard":null,"vip":false,"badge":{"type":"bestseller","tier":1000},"subscriber":null}}],"reaction":null,"reaction_count":72,"comment_count":895,"child_comment_count":58,"audio_items":[{"post_id":197186925,"voice_id":"en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural","audio_url":"https://substack-video.s3.amazonaws.com/video_upload/post/197186925/tts/bb766cf9-762f-4def-8ab8-f5a96bedc802/en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural.mp3","type":"tts","status":"completed"}],"is_geoblocked":false,"hasCashtag":false},{"id":182510930,"editor_v2":false,"publication_id":89120,"title":"Three Model Organisms For Taste","social_title":null,"search_engine_title":null,"search_engine_description":null,"type":"newsletter","slug":"three-model-organisms-for-taste","post_date":"2026-05-08T08:50:41.734Z","audience":"everyone","podcast_duration":null,"video_upload_id":null,"podcast_upload_id":null,"write_comment_permissions":"everyone","should_send_free_preview":false,"free_unlock_required":false,"default_comment_sort":null,"canonical_url":"https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/three-model-organisms-for-taste","section_id":null,"top_exclusions":[],"pins":[],"is_section_pinned":false,"section_slug":null,"section_name":null,"reactions":{"❤":282},"restacks":10,"restacked_post_id":null,"restacked_post_slug":null,"restacked_pub_name":null,"restacked_pub_logo_url":null,"subtitle":"...","cover_image":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!WH26!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6f969f88-9dab-49f2-8760-3f127663e3fe_1920x1280.png","cover_image_is_square":false,"cover_image_is_explicit":false,"podcast_url":null,"videoUpload":null,"podcastFields":{"post_id":182510930,"podcast_episode_number":null,"podcast_season_number":null,"podcast_episode_type":null,"should_syndicate_to_other_feed":null,"syndicate_to_section_id":null,"hide_from_feed":false,"free_podcast_url":null,"free_podcast_duration":null,"preview_contains_ad":false,"was_imported_self_serve_sync":false,"draft_free_podcast_url":null,"draft_free_podcast_duration":null},"podcast_preview_upload_id":null,"podcastUpload":null,"podcastPreviewUpload":null,"voiceover_upload_id":null,"voiceoverUpload":null,"has_voiceover":false,"description":"...","body_json":null,"body_html":null,"has_dynamic_content":false,"truncated_body_text":null,"wordcount":1791,"post_preview_limit":0,"language":"en","postTags":[],"teaser_post_eligible":true,"postCountryBlocks":[],"headlineTest":null,"coverImagePalette":{"Vibrant":{"rgb":[252,4,4],"population":3200},"DarkVibrant":{"rgb":[131.03385826771654,1.566141732283472,1.566141732283472],"population":0},"LightVibrant":{"rgb":[253.43385826771652,123.96614173228346,123.96614173228346],"population":0},"Muted":{"rgb":[151.19291338582678,1.8070866141732194,1.8070866141732194],"population":0},"DarkMuted":{"rgb":[151.19291338582678,1.8070866141732194,1.8070866141732194],"population":0},"LightMuted":{"rgb":[151.19291338582678,1.8070866141732194,1.8070866141732194],"population":0}},"publishedBylines":[{"id":12009663,"name":"Scott Alexander","handle":"astralcodexten","photo_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7b500d22-1176-42ad-afaa-5d72bc36a809_44x44.png","bio":null,"profile_set_up_at":"2021-04-16T05:06:04.745Z","reader_installed_at":null,"publicationUsers":[{"id":18921,"user_id":12009663,"publication_id":89120,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":true,"publication":{"id":89120,"name":"Astral Codex Ten","subdomain":"astralcodexten","custom_domain":"www.astralcodexten.com","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"P(A|B) = [P(A)*P(B|A)]/P(B), all the rest is commentary.","logo_url":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/430241cb-ade5-4316-b1c9-6e3fe6e63e5e_256x256.png","author_id":12009663,"primary_user_id":12009663,"theme_var_background_pop":"#67bdfc","created_at":"2020-08-30T04:18:18.308Z","email_from_name":"Astral Codex Ten","copyright":"Scott Alexander","founding_plan_name":"Founding Member","community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"enabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}},{"id":4774441,"user_id":12009663,"publication_id":3475640,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":false,"publication":{"id":3475640,"name":"AI Futures Project","subdomain":"aifutures1","custom_domain":"blog.aifutures.org","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"Preparing for a world with AGI","logo_url":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/3409cfd0-9243-479e-80f9-d0e3922c450a_132x132.png","author_id":1831134,"primary_user_id":1831134,"theme_var_background_pop":"#FF6719","created_at":"2024-12-06T19:32:31.188Z","email_from_name":"The AI Futures Project","copyright":"AI Futures Project","founding_plan_name":null,"community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"disabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}}],"is_guest":false,"bestseller_tier":1000,"status":{"bestsellerTier":1000,"subscriberTier":10,"leaderboard":null,"vip":false,"badge":{"type":"bestseller","tier":1000},"subscriber":null}}],"reaction":null,"reaction_count":282,"comment_count":535,"child_comment_count":124,"audio_items":[{"post_id":182510930,"voice_id":"en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural","audio_url":"https://substack-video.s3.amazonaws.com/video_upload/post/182510930/tts/192c9ea8-3611-44a7-9b5b-067989ecbd56/en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural.mp3","type":"tts","status":"completed"}],"is_geoblocked":false,"hasCashtag":false},{"id":153235867,"editor_v2":false,"publication_id":89120,"title":"Contra Everyone On Taste","social_title":"Contra Everyone On Taste","search_engine_title":null,"search_engine_description":null,"type":"newsletter","slug":"contra-everyone-on-taste","post_date":"2026-05-07T06:04:44.853Z","audience":"everyone","podcast_duration":null,"video_upload_id":null,"podcast_upload_id":null,"write_comment_permissions":"everyone","should_send_free_preview":false,"free_unlock_required":false,"default_comment_sort":null,"canonical_url":"https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/contra-everyone-on-taste","section_id":null,"top_exclusions":[],"pins":[],"is_section_pinned":false,"section_slug":null,"section_name":null,"reactions":{"❤":705},"restacks":90,"restacked_post_id":null,"restacked_post_slug":null,"restacked_pub_name":null,"restacked_pub_logo_url":null,"subtitle":"...","cover_image":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/9a3ab43f-f2a9-4fad-b9b1-889d228fab20_578x348.png","cover_image_is_square":false,"cover_image_is_explicit":false,"podcast_url":null,"videoUpload":null,"podcastFields":{"post_id":153235867,"podcast_episode_number":null,"podcast_season_number":null,"podcast_episode_type":null,"should_syndicate_to_other_feed":null,"syndicate_to_section_id":null,"hide_from_feed":false,"free_podcast_url":null,"free_podcast_duration":null,"preview_contains_ad":false,"was_imported_self_serve_sync":false,"draft_free_podcast_url":null,"draft_free_podcast_duration":null},"podcast_preview_upload_id":null,"podcastUpload":null,"podcastPreviewUpload":null,"voiceover_upload_id":null,"voiceoverUpload":null,"has_voiceover":false,"description":"...","body_json":null,"body_html":null,"has_dynamic_content":false,"truncated_body_text":null,"wordcount":5136,"post_preview_limit":0,"language":"en","postTags":[],"teaser_post_eligible":true,"postCountryBlocks":[],"headlineTest":null,"coverImagePalette":{"Vibrant":{"rgb":[215,146,41],"population":349},"DarkVibrant":{"rgb":[129,22,22],"population":249},"LightVibrant":{"rgb":[245,214,136],"population":321},"Muted":{"rgb":[144,119,101],"population":267},"DarkMuted":{"rgb":[76,59,44],"population":159},"LightMuted":{"rgb":[208,194,174],"population":341}},"publishedBylines":[{"id":12009663,"name":"Scott Alexander","handle":"astralcodexten","photo_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7b500d22-1176-42ad-afaa-5d72bc36a809_44x44.png","bio":null,"profile_set_up_at":"2021-04-16T05:06:04.745Z","reader_installed_at":null,"publicationUsers":[{"id":18921,"user_id":12009663,"publication_id":89120,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":true,"publication":{"id":89120,"name":"Astral Codex Ten","subdomain":"astralcodexten","custom_domain":"www.astralcodexten.com","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"P(A|B) = [P(A)*P(B|A)]/P(B), all the rest is commentary.","logo_url":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/430241cb-ade5-4316-b1c9-6e3fe6e63e5e_256x256.png","author_id":12009663,"primary_user_id":12009663,"theme_var_background_pop":"#67bdfc","created_at":"2020-08-30T04:18:18.308Z","email_from_name":"Astral Codex Ten","copyright":"Scott Alexander","founding_plan_name":"Founding Member","community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"enabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}},{"id":4774441,"user_id":12009663,"publication_id":3475640,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":false,"publication":{"id":3475640,"name":"AI Futures Project","subdomain":"aifutures1","custom_domain":"blog.aifutures.org","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"Preparing for a world with AGI","logo_url":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/3409cfd0-9243-479e-80f9-d0e3922c450a_132x132.png","author_id":1831134,"primary_user_id":1831134,"theme_var_background_pop":"#FF6719","created_at":"2024-12-06T19:32:31.188Z","email_from_name":"The AI Futures Project","copyright":"AI Futures Project","founding_plan_name":null,"community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"disabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}}],"is_guest":false,"bestseller_tier":1000,"status":{"bestsellerTier":1000,"subscriberTier":10,"leaderboard":null,"vip":false,"badge":{"type":"bestseller","tier":1000},"subscriber":null}}],"reaction":null,"reaction_count":705,"comment_count":818,"child_comment_count":223,"audio_items":[{"post_id":153235867,"voice_id":"en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural","audio_url":"https://substack-video.s3.amazonaws.com/video_upload/post/153235867/tts/fd2fb812-d2ac-4fa0-9ada-088f3f23674d/en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural.mp3","type":"tts","status":"completed"}],"is_geoblocked":false,"hasCashtag":false},{"id":196743037,"editor_v2":false,"publication_id":89120,"title":"Hidden Open Thread 432.5","social_title":"Hidden Open Thread 432.5","search_engine_title":null,"search_engine_description":null,"type":"newsletter","slug":"hidden-open-thread-4325","post_date":"2026-05-07T05:42:26.050Z","audience":"only_paid","podcast_duration":null,"video_upload_id":null,"podcast_upload_id":null,"write_comment_permissions":"only_paid","should_send_free_preview":false,"free_unlock_required":false,"default_comment_sort":"most_recent_first","canonical_url":"https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/hidden-open-thread-4325","section_id":null,"top_exclusions":[],"pins":[],"is_section_pinned":false,"section_slug":null,"section_name":null,"reactions":{"❤":7},"restacks":0,"restacked_post_id":null,"restacked_post_slug":null,"restacked_pub_name":null,"restacked_pub_logo_url":null,"subtitle":"...","cover_image":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/b09183f8-03d5-4b30-80ce-1979f327a836_612x583.jpeg","cover_image_is_square":false,"cover_image_is_explicit":false,"podcast_url":null,"videoUpload":null,"podcastFields":null,"podcast_preview_upload_id":null,"podcastUpload":null,"podcastPreviewUpload":null,"voiceover_upload_id":null,"voiceoverUpload":null,"has_voiceover":false,"description":"...","body_json":null,"body_html":null,"has_dynamic_content":false,"truncated_body_text":null,"wordcount":20,"post_preview_limit":0,"language":"en","postTags":[],"teaser_post_eligible":true,"postCountryBlocks":[],"headlineTest":null,"coverImagePalette":{"Vibrant":{"rgb":[129.375,129.375,125.625],"population":0},"DarkVibrant":{"rgb":[67.275,67.275,65.325],"population":0},"LightVibrant":{"rgb":[189.67499999999998,189.67499999999998,187.725],"population":0},"Muted":{"rgb":[124,124,124],"population":4},"DarkMuted":{"rgb":[68,68,68],"population":7},"LightMuted":{"rgb":[188,188,186],"population":5}},"publishedBylines":[{"id":12009663,"name":"Scott Alexander","handle":"astralcodexten","photo_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7b500d22-1176-42ad-afaa-5d72bc36a809_44x44.png","bio":null,"profile_set_up_at":"2021-04-16T05:06:04.745Z","reader_installed_at":null,"publicationUsers":[{"id":18921,"user_id":12009663,"publication_id":89120,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":true,"publication":{"id":89120,"name":"Astral Codex Ten","subdomain":"astralcodexten","custom_domain":"www.astralcodexten.com","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"P(A|B) = [P(A)*P(B|A)]/P(B), all the rest is commentary.","logo_url":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/430241cb-ade5-4316-b1c9-6e3fe6e63e5e_256x256.png","author_id":12009663,"primary_user_id":12009663,"theme_var_background_pop":"#67bdfc","created_at":"2020-08-30T04:18:18.308Z","email_from_name":"Astral Codex Ten","copyright":"Scott Alexander","founding_plan_name":"Founding Member","community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"enabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}},{"id":4774441,"user_id":12009663,"publication_id":3475640,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":false,"publication":{"id":3475640,"name":"AI Futures Project","subdomain":"aifutures1","custom_domain":"blog.aifutures.org","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"Preparing for a world with AGI","logo_url":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/3409cfd0-9243-479e-80f9-d0e3922c450a_132x132.png","author_id":1831134,"primary_user_id":1831134,"theme_var_background_pop":"#FF6719","created_at":"2024-12-06T19:32:31.188Z","email_from_name":"The AI Futures Project","copyright":"AI Futures Project","founding_plan_name":null,"community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"disabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}}],"is_guest":false,"bestseller_tier":1000,"status":{"bestsellerTier":1000,"subscriberTier":10,"leaderboard":null,"vip":false,"badge":{"type":"bestseller","tier":1000},"subscriber":null}}],"reaction":null,"reaction_count":7,"comment_count":41,"child_comment_count":7,"audio_items":[{"post_id":196743037,"voice_id":"en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural","audio_url":null,"type":"tts","status":"paywalled"}],"is_geoblocked":false,"hidden":true,"hasCashtag":false},{"id":196412511,"editor_v2":false,"publication_id":89120,"title":"Open Thread 432","social_title":"Open Thread 432","search_engine_title":null,"search_engine_description":null,"type":"newsletter","slug":"open-thread-432","post_date":"2026-05-04T12:54:07.654Z","audience":"everyone","podcast_duration":null,"video_upload_id":null,"podcast_upload_id":null,"write_comment_permissions":"everyone","should_send_free_preview":false,"free_unlock_required":false,"default_comment_sort":"most_recent_first","canonical_url":"https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/open-thread-432","section_id":null,"top_exclusions":[],"pins":[],"is_section_pinned":false,"section_slug":null,"section_name":null,"reactions":{"❤":39},"restacks":3,"restacked_post_id":null,"restacked_post_slug":null,"restacked_pub_name":null,"restacked_pub_logo_url":null,"subtitle":"...","cover_image":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/62bb78cf-bc18-4406-b946-076ba88cde01_1536x1024.png","cover_image_is_square":false,"cover_image_is_explicit":false,"podcast_url":null,"videoUpload":null,"podcastFields":null,"podcast_preview_upload_id":null,"podcastUpload":null,"podcastPreviewUpload":null,"voiceover_upload_id":null,"voiceoverUpload":null,"has_voiceover":false,"description":"...","body_json":null,"body_html":null,"has_dynamic_content":false,"truncated_body_text":null,"wordcount":158,"post_preview_limit":0,"language":"en","postTags":[],"teaser_post_eligible":true,"postCountryBlocks":[],"headlineTest":null,"coverImagePalette":{"Vibrant":{"rgb":[215,56,13],"population":269},"DarkVibrant":{"rgb":[123,24,11],"population":283},"LightVibrant":{"rgb":[241,170,71],"population":645},"Muted":{"rgb":[86,160,162],"population":14},"DarkMuted":{"rgb":[52,92,54],"population":115},"LightMuted":{"rgb":[142.18181818181816,87.3181818181818,10.81818181818183],"population":0}},"publishedBylines":[{"id":12009663,"name":"Scott Alexander","handle":"astralcodexten","photo_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7b500d22-1176-42ad-afaa-5d72bc36a809_44x44.png","bio":null,"profile_set_up_at":"2021-04-16T05:06:04.745Z","reader_installed_at":null,"publicationUsers":[{"id":18921,"user_id":12009663,"publication_id":89120,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":true,"publication":{"id":89120,"name":"Astral Codex Ten","subdomain":"astralcodexten","custom_domain":"www.astralcodexten.com","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"P(A|B) = [P(A)*P(B|A)]/P(B), all the rest is commentary.","logo_url":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/430241cb-ade5-4316-b1c9-6e3fe6e63e5e_256x256.png","author_id":12009663,"primary_user_id":12009663,"theme_var_background_pop":"#67bdfc","created_at":"2020-08-30T04:18:18.308Z","email_from_name":"Astral Codex Ten","copyright":"Scott Alexander","founding_plan_name":"Founding Member","community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"enabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}},{"id":4774441,"user_id":12009663,"publication_id":3475640,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":false,"publication":{"id":3475640,"name":"AI Futures Project","subdomain":"aifutures1","custom_domain":"blog.aifutures.org","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"Preparing for a world with AGI","logo_url":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/3409cfd0-9243-479e-80f9-d0e3922c450a_132x132.png","author_id":1831134,"primary_user_id":1831134,"theme_var_background_pop":"#FF6719","created_at":"2024-12-06T19:32:31.188Z","email_from_name":"The AI Futures Project","copyright":"AI Futures Project","founding_plan_name":null,"community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"disabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}}],"is_guest":false,"bestseller_tier":1000,"status":{"bestsellerTier":1000,"subscriberTier":10,"leaderboard":null,"vip":false,"badge":{"type":"bestseller","tier":1000},"subscriber":null}}],"reaction":null,"reaction_count":39,"comment_count":899,"child_comment_count":68,"audio_items":[{"post_id":196412511,"voice_id":"en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural","audio_url":"https://substack-video.s3.amazonaws.com/video_upload/post/196412511/tts/f7f636c9-56cc-48f5-94ba-6d202e77f1d8/en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural.mp3","type":"tts","status":"completed"}],"is_geoblocked":false,"hasCashtag":false},{"id":195940265,"editor_v2":false,"publication_id":89120,"title":"What Deontological Bars?","social_title":"What Deontological Bars?","search_engine_title":null,"search_engine_description":null,"type":"newsletter","slug":"what-deontological-bars","post_date":"2026-04-30T23:11:09.241Z","audience":"everyone","podcast_duration":null,"video_upload_id":null,"podcast_upload_id":null,"write_comment_permissions":"everyone","should_send_free_preview":false,"free_unlock_required":false,"default_comment_sort":null,"canonical_url":"https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/what-deontological-bars","section_id":null,"top_exclusions":[],"pins":[],"is_section_pinned":false,"section_slug":null,"section_name":null,"reactions":{"❤":254},"restacks":11,"restacked_post_id":null,"restacked_post_slug":null,"restacked_pub_name":null,"restacked_pub_logo_url":null,"subtitle":"...","cover_image":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/49c68683-8782-4783-9a13-3e313da6c457_1536x1024.png","cover_image_is_square":false,"cover_image_is_explicit":false,"podcast_url":null,"videoUpload":null,"podcastFields":{"post_id":195940265,"podcast_episode_number":null,"podcast_season_number":null,"podcast_episode_type":null,"should_syndicate_to_other_feed":null,"syndicate_to_section_id":null,"hide_from_feed":false,"free_podcast_url":null,"free_podcast_duration":null,"preview_contains_ad":false,"was_imported_self_serve_sync":false,"draft_free_podcast_url":null,"draft_free_podcast_duration":null},"podcast_preview_upload_id":null,"podcastUpload":null,"podcastPreviewUpload":null,"voiceover_upload_id":null,"voiceoverUpload":null,"has_voiceover":false,"description":"...","body_json":null,"body_html":null,"has_dynamic_content":false,"truncated_body_text":null,"wordcount":1598,"post_preview_limit":0,"language":"en","postTags":[],"teaser_post_eligible":true,"postCountryBlocks":[],"headlineTest":null,"coverImagePalette":{"Vibrant":{"rgb":[196,148,76],"population":1},"DarkVibrant":{"rgb":[116,60,20],"population":1},"LightVibrant":{"rgb":[196,154,111],"population":74},"Muted":{"rgb":[161,126,89],"population":73},"DarkMuted":{"rgb":[84,65,44],"population":37},"LightMuted":{"rgb":[172,148,116],"population":2}},"publishedBylines":[{"id":12009663,"name":"Scott Alexander","handle":"astralcodexten","photo_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7b500d22-1176-42ad-afaa-5d72bc36a809_44x44.png","bio":null,"profile_set_up_at":"2021-04-16T05:06:04.745Z","reader_installed_at":null,"publicationUsers":[{"id":18921,"user_id":12009663,"publication_id":89120,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":true,"publication":{"id":89120,"name":"Astral Codex Ten","subdomain":"astralcodexten","custom_domain":"www.astralcodexten.com","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"P(A|B) = [P(A)*P(B|A)]/P(B), all the rest is commentary.","logo_url":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/430241cb-ade5-4316-b1c9-6e3fe6e63e5e_256x256.png","author_id":12009663,"primary_user_id":12009663,"theme_var_background_pop":"#67bdfc","created_at":"2020-08-30T04:18:18.308Z","email_from_name":"Astral Codex Ten","copyright":"Scott Alexander","founding_plan_name":"Founding Member","community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"enabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}},{"id":4774441,"user_id":12009663,"publication_id":3475640,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":false,"publication":{"id":3475640,"name":"AI Futures Project","subdomain":"aifutures1","custom_domain":"blog.aifutures.org","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"Preparing for a world with AGI","logo_url":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/3409cfd0-9243-479e-80f9-d0e3922c450a_132x132.png","author_id":1831134,"primary_user_id":1831134,"theme_var_background_pop":"#FF6719","created_at":"2024-12-06T19:32:31.188Z","email_from_name":"The AI Futures Project","copyright":"AI Futures Project","founding_plan_name":null,"community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"disabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}}],"is_guest":false,"bestseller_tier":1000,"status":{"bestsellerTier":1000,"subscriberTier":10,"leaderboard":null,"vip":false,"badge":{"type":"bestseller","tier":1000},"subscriber":null}}],"reaction":null,"reaction_count":254,"comment_count":438,"child_comment_count":94,"audio_items":[{"post_id":195940265,"voice_id":"en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural","audio_url":"https://substack-video.s3.amazonaws.com/video_upload/post/195940265/tts/fed5ba17-56cd-4963-a7b9-93952d52e2b1/en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural.mp3","type":"tts","status":"completed"}],"is_geoblocked":false,"hasCashtag":false},{"id":145521394,"editor_v2":false,"publication_id":89120,"title":"Your Attempt To Solve Debate Will Not Work","social_title":"Your Attempt To Solve Debate Will Not Work","search_engine_title":null,"search_engine_description":null,"type":"newsletter","slug":"your-attempt-to-solve-debate-will","post_date":"2026-04-28T19:55:10.509Z","audience":"everyone","podcast_duration":null,"video_upload_id":null,"podcast_upload_id":null,"write_comment_permissions":"everyone","should_send_free_preview":false,"free_unlock_required":false,"default_comment_sort":null,"canonical_url":"https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/your-attempt-to-solve-debate-will","section_id":null,"top_exclusions":[],"pins":[],"is_section_pinned":false,"section_slug":null,"section_name":null,"reactions":{"❤":506},"restacks":66,"restacked_post_id":null,"restacked_post_slug":null,"restacked_pub_name":null,"restacked_pub_logo_url":null,"subtitle":"...","cover_image":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/ef04a303-d765-4f13-b9fd-1eec8bfa759e_795x526.webp","cover_image_is_square":false,"cover_image_is_explicit":false,"podcast_url":null,"videoUpload":null,"podcastFields":{"post_id":145521394,"podcast_episode_number":null,"podcast_season_number":null,"podcast_episode_type":null,"should_syndicate_to_other_feed":null,"syndicate_to_section_id":null,"hide_from_feed":false,"free_podcast_url":null,"free_podcast_duration":null,"preview_contains_ad":false,"was_imported_self_serve_sync":false,"draft_free_podcast_url":null,"draft_free_podcast_duration":null},"podcast_preview_upload_id":null,"podcastUpload":null,"podcastPreviewUpload":null,"voiceover_upload_id":null,"voiceoverUpload":null,"has_voiceover":false,"description":"...","body_json":null,"body_html":null,"has_dynamic_content":false,"truncated_body_text":null,"wordcount":1247,"post_preview_limit":0,"language":"en","postTags":[],"teaser_post_eligible":true,"postCountryBlocks":[],"headlineTest":null,"coverImagePalette":{"Vibrant":{"rgb":[183,109,51],"population":15},"DarkVibrant":{"rgb":[116,65,30],"population":90},"LightVibrant":{"rgb":[240,188,108],"population":2},"Muted":{"rgb":[158,143,80],"population":25},"DarkMuted":{"rgb":[73,74,48],"population":292},"LightMuted":{"rgb":[197,191,167],"population":345}},"publishedBylines":[{"id":12009663,"name":"Scott Alexander","handle":"astralcodexten","photo_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7b500d22-1176-42ad-afaa-5d72bc36a809_44x44.png","bio":null,"profile_set_up_at":"2021-04-16T05:06:04.745Z","reader_installed_at":null,"publicationUsers":[{"id":18921,"user_id":12009663,"publication_id":89120,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":true,"publication":{"id":89120,"name":"Astral Codex Ten","subdomain":"astralcodexten","custom_domain":"www.astralcodexten.com","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"P(A|B) = [P(A)*P(B|A)]/P(B), all the rest is commentary.","logo_url":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/430241cb-ade5-4316-b1c9-6e3fe6e63e5e_256x256.png","author_id":12009663,"primary_user_id":12009663,"theme_var_background_pop":"#67bdfc","created_at":"2020-08-30T04:18:18.308Z","email_from_name":"Astral Codex Ten","copyright":"Scott Alexander","founding_plan_name":"Founding Member","community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"enabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}},{"id":4774441,"user_id":12009663,"publication_id":3475640,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":false,"publication":{"id":3475640,"name":"AI Futures Project","subdomain":"aifutures1","custom_domain":"blog.aifutures.org","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"Preparing for a world with AGI","logo_url":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/3409cfd0-9243-479e-80f9-d0e3922c450a_132x132.png","author_id":1831134,"primary_user_id":1831134,"theme_var_background_pop":"#FF6719","created_at":"2024-12-06T19:32:31.188Z","email_from_name":"The AI Futures Project","copyright":"AI Futures Project","founding_plan_name":null,"community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"disabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}}],"is_guest":false,"bestseller_tier":1000,"status":{"bestsellerTier":1000,"subscriberTier":10,"leaderboard":null,"vip":false,"badge":{"type":"bestseller","tier":1000},"subscriber":null}}],"reaction":null,"reaction_count":506,"comment_count":393,"child_comment_count":156,"audio_items":[{"post_id":145521394,"voice_id":"en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural","audio_url":"https://substack-video.s3.amazonaws.com/video_upload/post/145521394/tts/06ceb496-5c54-4565-8eee-8fe3f7d67be7/en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural.mp3","type":"tts","status":"completed"}],"is_geoblocked":false,"hasCashtag":false},{"id":195619796,"editor_v2":false,"publication_id":89120,"title":"Open Thread 431","social_title":"Open Thread 431","search_engine_title":null,"search_engine_description":null,"type":"newsletter","slug":"open-thread-431","post_date":"2026-04-27T12:50:10.341Z","audience":"everyone","podcast_duration":null,"video_upload_id":null,"podcast_upload_id":null,"write_comment_permissions":"everyone","should_send_free_preview":false,"free_unlock_required":false,"default_comment_sort":"most_recent_first","canonical_url":"https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/open-thread-431","section_id":null,"top_exclusions":[],"pins":[],"is_section_pinned":false,"section_slug":null,"section_name":null,"reactions":{"❤":53},"restacks":2,"restacked_post_id":null,"restacked_post_slug":null,"restacked_pub_name":null,"restacked_pub_logo_url":null,"subtitle":"...","cover_image":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/d5cf6a9f-576e-4c63-be3d-b1e8558deb93_1536x1024.png","cover_image_is_square":false,"cover_image_is_explicit":false,"podcast_url":null,"videoUpload":null,"podcastFields":null,"podcast_preview_upload_id":null,"podcastUpload":null,"podcastPreviewUpload":null,"voiceover_upload_id":null,"voiceoverUpload":null,"has_voiceover":false,"description":"...","body_json":null,"body_html":null,"has_dynamic_content":false,"truncated_body_text":null,"wordcount":272,"post_preview_limit":0,"language":"en","postTags":[],"teaser_post_eligible":true,"postCountryBlocks":[],"headlineTest":null,"coverImagePalette":{"Vibrant":{"rgb":[215,56,13],"population":269},"DarkVibrant":{"rgb":[123,24,11],"population":283},"LightVibrant":{"rgb":[241,170,71],"population":645},"Muted":{"rgb":[86,160,162],"population":14},"DarkMuted":{"rgb":[52,92,54],"population":115},"LightMuted":{"rgb":[142.18181818181816,87.3181818181818,10.81818181818183],"population":0}},"publishedBylines":[{"id":12009663,"name":"Scott Alexander","handle":"astralcodexten","photo_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7b500d22-1176-42ad-afaa-5d72bc36a809_44x44.png","bio":null,"profile_set_up_at":"2021-04-16T05:06:04.745Z","reader_installed_at":null,"publicationUsers":[{"id":18921,"user_id":12009663,"publication_id":89120,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":true,"publication":{"id":89120,"name":"Astral Codex Ten","subdomain":"astralcodexten","custom_domain":"www.astralcodexten.com","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"P(A|B) = [P(A)*P(B|A)]/P(B), all the rest is commentary.","logo_url":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/430241cb-ade5-4316-b1c9-6e3fe6e63e5e_256x256.png","author_id":12009663,"primary_user_id":12009663,"theme_var_background_pop":"#67bdfc","created_at":"2020-08-30T04:18:18.308Z","email_from_name":"Astral Codex Ten","copyright":"Scott Alexander","founding_plan_name":"Founding Member","community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"enabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}},{"id":4774441,"user_id":12009663,"publication_id":3475640,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":false,"publication":{"id":3475640,"name":"AI Futures Project","subdomain":"aifutures1","custom_domain":"blog.aifutures.org","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"Preparing for a world with AGI","logo_url":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/3409cfd0-9243-479e-80f9-d0e3922c450a_132x132.png","author_id":1831134,"primary_user_id":1831134,"theme_var_background_pop":"#FF6719","created_at":"2024-12-06T19:32:31.188Z","email_from_name":"The AI Futures Project","copyright":"AI Futures Project","founding_plan_name":null,"community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"disabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}}],"is_guest":false,"bestseller_tier":1000,"status":{"bestsellerTier":1000,"subscriberTier":10,"leaderboard":null,"vip":false,"badge":{"type":"bestseller","tier":1000},"subscriber":null}}],"reaction":null,"reaction_count":53,"comment_count":958,"child_comment_count":69,"audio_items":[{"post_id":195619796,"voice_id":"en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural","audio_url":"https://substack-video.s3.amazonaws.com/video_upload/post/195619796/tts/b9f8b0c1-012f-477c-b340-865d2d0107a3/en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural.mp3","type":"tts","status":"completed"}],"is_geoblocked":false,"hasCashtag":false},{"id":191203347,"editor_v2":false,"publication_id":89120,"title":"Links For April 2026","social_title":"Links For April 2026","search_engine_title":null,"search_engine_description":null,"type":"newsletter","slug":"links-for-april-2026","post_date":"2026-04-23T17:33:29.849Z","audience":"everyone","podcast_duration":null,"video_upload_id":null,"podcast_upload_id":null,"write_comment_permissions":"everyone","should_send_free_preview":false,"free_unlock_required":false,"default_comment_sort":null,"canonical_url":"https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/links-for-april-2026","section_id":null,"top_exclusions":[],"pins":[],"is_section_pinned":false,"section_slug":null,"section_name":null,"reactions":{"❤":280},"restacks":33,"restacked_post_id":null,"restacked_post_slug":null,"restacked_pub_name":null,"restacked_pub_logo_url":null,"subtitle":"...","cover_image":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/25bbdbf4-f560-4b64-b61c-bea7b0acd382_670x402.png","cover_image_is_square":false,"cover_image_is_explicit":false,"podcast_url":null,"videoUpload":null,"podcastFields":{"post_id":191203347,"podcast_episode_number":null,"podcast_season_number":null,"podcast_episode_type":null,"should_syndicate_to_other_feed":null,"syndicate_to_section_id":null,"hide_from_feed":false,"free_podcast_url":null,"free_podcast_duration":null,"preview_contains_ad":false,"was_imported_self_serve_sync":false,"draft_free_podcast_url":null,"draft_free_podcast_duration":null},"podcast_preview_upload_id":null,"podcastUpload":null,"podcastPreviewUpload":null,"voiceover_upload_id":null,"voiceoverUpload":null,"has_voiceover":false,"description":"...","body_json":null,"body_html":null,"has_dynamic_content":false,"truncated_body_text":null,"wordcount":6427,"post_preview_limit":0,"language":"en","postTags":[],"teaser_post_eligible":true,"postCountryBlocks":[],"headlineTest":null,"coverImagePalette":{"Vibrant":{"rgb":[214,170,30],"population":4},"DarkVibrant":{"rgb":[135,29,129],"population":58},"LightVibrant":{"rgb":[238.69672131147541,214.7852459016393,138.7032786885246],"population":0},"Muted":{"rgb":[155,82,155],"population":194},"DarkMuted":{"rgb":[77,89,56],"population":389},"LightMuted":{"rgb":[210,197,180],"population":9}},"publishedBylines":[{"id":12009663,"name":"Scott Alexander","handle":"astralcodexten","photo_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7b500d22-1176-42ad-afaa-5d72bc36a809_44x44.png","bio":null,"profile_set_up_at":"2021-04-16T05:06:04.745Z","reader_installed_at":null,"publicationUsers":[{"id":18921,"user_id":12009663,"publication_id":89120,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":true,"publication":{"id":89120,"name":"Astral Codex Ten","subdomain":"astralcodexten","custom_domain":"www.astralcodexten.com","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"P(A|B) = [P(A)*P(B|A)]/P(B), all the rest is commentary.","logo_url":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/430241cb-ade5-4316-b1c9-6e3fe6e63e5e_256x256.png","author_id":12009663,"primary_user_id":12009663,"theme_var_background_pop":"#67bdfc","created_at":"2020-08-30T04:18:18.308Z","email_from_name":"Astral Codex Ten","copyright":"Scott Alexander","founding_plan_name":"Founding Member","community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"enabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}},{"id":4774441,"user_id":12009663,"publication_id":3475640,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":false,"publication":{"id":3475640,"name":"AI Futures Project","subdomain":"aifutures1","custom_domain":"blog.aifutures.org","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"Preparing for a world with AGI","logo_url":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/3409cfd0-9243-479e-80f9-d0e3922c450a_132x132.png","author_id":1831134,"primary_user_id":1831134,"theme_var_background_pop":"#FF6719","created_at":"2024-12-06T19:32:31.188Z","email_from_name":"The AI Futures Project","copyright":"AI Futures Project","founding_plan_name":null,"community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"disabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}}],"is_guest":false,"bestseller_tier":1000,"status":{"bestsellerTier":1000,"subscriberTier":10,"leaderboard":null,"vip":false,"badge":{"type":"bestseller","tier":1000},"subscriber":null}}],"reaction":null,"reaction_count":280,"comment_count":597,"child_comment_count":157,"audio_items":[{"post_id":191203347,"voice_id":"en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural","audio_url":"https://substack-video.s3.amazonaws.com/video_upload/post/191203347/tts/876a493c-36b0-4ae3-9df2-0af4949ec59a/en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural.mp3","type":"tts","status":"completed"}],"is_geoblocked":false,"hasCashtag":false},{"id":185242930,"editor_v2":false,"publication_id":89120,"title":"Half A Month Of Consolation Writing Advice","social_title":"Half A Month Of Consolation Writing Advice","search_engine_title":null,"search_engine_description":null,"type":"newsletter","slug":"half-a-month-of-consolation-writing","post_date":"2026-04-21T15:14:10.213Z","audience":"everyone","podcast_duration":null,"video_upload_id":null,"podcast_upload_id":null,"write_comment_permissions":"everyone","should_send_free_preview":false,"free_unlock_required":false,"default_comment_sort":null,"canonical_url":"https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/half-a-month-of-consolation-writing","section_id":null,"top_exclusions":[],"pins":[],"is_section_pinned":false,"section_slug":null,"section_name":null,"reactions":{"❤":846},"restacks":98,"restacked_post_id":null,"restacked_post_slug":null,"restacked_pub_name":null,"restacked_pub_logo_url":null,"subtitle":"...","cover_image":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/3f6b79fd-0be4-4956-ad92-a9ca487e9e92_1200x801.webp","cover_image_is_square":false,"cover_image_is_explicit":false,"podcast_url":null,"videoUpload":null,"podcastFields":{"post_id":185242930,"podcast_episode_number":null,"podcast_season_number":null,"podcast_episode_type":null,"should_syndicate_to_other_feed":null,"syndicate_to_section_id":null,"hide_from_feed":false,"free_podcast_url":null,"free_podcast_duration":null,"preview_contains_ad":false,"was_imported_self_serve_sync":false,"draft_free_podcast_url":null,"draft_free_podcast_duration":null},"podcast_preview_upload_id":null,"podcastUpload":null,"podcastPreviewUpload":null,"voiceover_upload_id":null,"voiceoverUpload":null,"has_voiceover":false,"description":"...","body_json":null,"body_html":null,"has_dynamic_content":false,"truncated_body_text":null,"wordcount":5897,"post_preview_limit":0,"language":"en","postTags":[],"teaser_post_eligible":true,"postCountryBlocks":[],"headlineTest":null,"coverImagePalette":{"Vibrant":{"rgb":[170,57,38],"population":6},"DarkVibrant":{"rgb":[4,20,12],"population":1},"LightVibrant":{"rgb":[228,204,124],"population":1},"Muted":{"rgb":[166,122,98],"population":15},"DarkMuted":{"rgb":[43,73,40],"population":281},"LightMuted":{"rgb":[212,196,170],"population":5}},"publishedBylines":[{"id":12009663,"name":"Scott Alexander","handle":"astralcodexten","photo_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7b500d22-1176-42ad-afaa-5d72bc36a809_44x44.png","bio":null,"profile_set_up_at":"2021-04-16T05:06:04.745Z","reader_installed_at":null,"publicationUsers":[{"id":18921,"user_id":12009663,"publication_id":89120,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":true,"publication":{"id":89120,"name":"Astral Codex Ten","subdomain":"astralcodexten","custom_domain":"www.astralcodexten.com","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"P(A|B) = [P(A)*P(B|A)]/P(B), all the rest is commentary.","logo_url":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/430241cb-ade5-4316-b1c9-6e3fe6e63e5e_256x256.png","author_id":12009663,"primary_user_id":12009663,"theme_var_background_pop":"#67bdfc","created_at":"2020-08-30T04:18:18.308Z","email_from_name":"Astral Codex Ten","copyright":"Scott Alexander","founding_plan_name":"Founding Member","community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"enabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}},{"id":4774441,"user_id":12009663,"publication_id":3475640,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":false,"publication":{"id":3475640,"name":"AI Futures Project","subdomain":"aifutures1","custom_domain":"blog.aifutures.org","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"Preparing for a world with AGI","logo_url":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/3409cfd0-9243-479e-80f9-d0e3922c450a_132x132.png","author_id":1831134,"primary_user_id":1831134,"theme_var_background_pop":"#FF6719","created_at":"2024-12-06T19:32:31.188Z","email_from_name":"The AI Futures Project","copyright":"AI Futures Project","founding_plan_name":null,"community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"disabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}}],"is_guest":false,"bestseller_tier":1000,"status":{"bestsellerTier":1000,"subscriberTier":10,"leaderboard":null,"vip":false,"badge":{"type":"bestseller","tier":1000},"subscriber":null}}],"reaction":null,"reaction_count":846,"comment_count":222,"child_comment_count":81,"audio_items":[{"post_id":185242930,"voice_id":"en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural","audio_url":"https://substack-video.s3.amazonaws.com/video_upload/post/185242930/tts/47396598-f523-45c1-bdb0-64c0d1cdc81a/en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural.mp3","type":"tts","status":"completed"}],"is_geoblocked":false,"hasCashtag":false},{"id":194760991,"editor_v2":false,"publication_id":89120,"title":"Open Thread 430","social_title":"Open Thread 430","search_engine_title":null,"search_engine_description":null,"type":"newsletter","slug":"open-thread-430","post_date":"2026-04-20T05:10:07.715Z","audience":"everyone","podcast_duration":null,"video_upload_id":null,"podcast_upload_id":null,"write_comment_permissions":"everyone","should_send_free_preview":false,"free_unlock_required":false,"default_comment_sort":"most_recent_first","canonical_url":"https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/open-thread-430","section_id":null,"top_exclusions":[],"pins":[],"is_section_pinned":false,"section_slug":null,"section_name":null,"reactions":{"❤":47},"restacks":3,"restacked_post_id":null,"restacked_post_slug":null,"restacked_pub_name":null,"restacked_pub_logo_url":null,"subtitle":"...","cover_image":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/f18a312b-b0f8-42d5-87e8-98696125eb3f_1536x1024.png","cover_image_is_square":false,"cover_image_is_explicit":false,"podcast_url":null,"videoUpload":null,"podcastFields":{"post_id":194760991,"podcast_episode_number":null,"podcast_season_number":null,"podcast_episode_type":null,"should_syndicate_to_other_feed":null,"syndicate_to_section_id":null,"hide_from_feed":false,"free_podcast_url":null,"free_podcast_duration":null,"preview_contains_ad":false,"was_imported_self_serve_sync":false,"draft_free_podcast_url":null,"draft_free_podcast_duration":null},"podcast_preview_upload_id":null,"podcastUpload":null,"podcastPreviewUpload":null,"voiceover_upload_id":null,"voiceoverUpload":null,"has_voiceover":false,"description":"...","body_json":null,"body_html":null,"has_dynamic_content":false,"truncated_body_text":null,"wordcount":543,"post_preview_limit":0,"language":"en","postTags":[],"teaser_post_eligible":true,"postCountryBlocks":[],"headlineTest":null,"coverImagePalette":{"Vibrant":{"rgb":[215,56,13],"population":269},"DarkVibrant":{"rgb":[123,24,11],"population":283},"LightVibrant":{"rgb":[241,170,71],"population":645},"Muted":{"rgb":[86,160,162],"population":14},"DarkMuted":{"rgb":[52,92,54],"population":115},"LightMuted":{"rgb":[142.18181818181816,87.3181818181818,10.81818181818183],"population":0}},"publishedBylines":[{"id":12009663,"name":"Scott Alexander","handle":"astralcodexten","photo_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7b500d22-1176-42ad-afaa-5d72bc36a809_44x44.png","bio":null,"profile_set_up_at":"2021-04-16T05:06:04.745Z","reader_installed_at":null,"publicationUsers":[{"id":18921,"user_id":12009663,"publication_id":89120,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":true,"publication":{"id":89120,"name":"Astral Codex Ten","subdomain":"astralcodexten","custom_domain":"www.astralcodexten.com","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"P(A|B) = [P(A)*P(B|A)]/P(B), all the rest is commentary.","logo_url":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/430241cb-ade5-4316-b1c9-6e3fe6e63e5e_256x256.png","author_id":12009663,"primary_user_id":12009663,"theme_var_background_pop":"#67bdfc","created_at":"2020-08-30T04:18:18.308Z","email_from_name":"Astral Codex Ten","copyright":"Scott Alexander","founding_plan_name":"Founding Member","community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"enabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}},{"id":4774441,"user_id":12009663,"publication_id":3475640,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":false,"publication":{"id":3475640,"name":"AI Futures Project","subdomain":"aifutures1","custom_domain":"blog.aifutures.org","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"Preparing for a world with AGI","logo_url":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/3409cfd0-9243-479e-80f9-d0e3922c450a_132x132.png","author_id":1831134,"primary_user_id":1831134,"theme_var_background_pop":"#FF6719","created_at":"2024-12-06T19:32:31.188Z","email_from_name":"The AI Futures Project","copyright":"AI Futures Project","founding_plan_name":null,"community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"disabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}}],"is_guest":false,"bestseller_tier":1000,"status":{"bestsellerTier":1000,"subscriberTier":10,"leaderboard":null,"vip":false,"badge":{"type":"bestseller","tier":1000},"subscriber":null}}],"reaction":null,"reaction_count":47,"comment_count":832,"child_comment_count":60,"audio_items":[{"post_id":194760991,"voice_id":"en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural","audio_url":"https://substack-video.s3.amazonaws.com/video_upload/post/194760991/tts/80a8fd19-2aa1-4591-93c7-47b00b87948a/en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural.mp3","type":"tts","status":"completed"}],"is_geoblocked":false,"hasCashtag":false},{"id":194342774,"editor_v2":false,"publication_id":89120,"title":"Orban Was Bad, Even Though We Don't Have A Perfect Word For His Badness","social_title":"Orban Was Bad, Even Though We Don't Have A Perfect Word For His Badness","search_engine_title":null,"search_engine_description":null,"type":"newsletter","slug":"orban-was-bad-even-though-we-dont","post_date":"2026-04-16T01:51:55.751Z","audience":"everyone","podcast_duration":null,"video_upload_id":null,"podcast_upload_id":null,"write_comment_permissions":"everyone","should_send_free_preview":false,"free_unlock_required":false,"default_comment_sort":null,"canonical_url":"https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/orban-was-bad-even-though-we-dont","section_id":null,"top_exclusions":[],"pins":[],"is_section_pinned":false,"section_slug":null,"section_name":null,"reactions":{"❤":868},"restacks":84,"restacked_post_id":null,"restacked_post_slug":null,"restacked_pub_name":null,"restacked_pub_logo_url":null,"subtitle":"...","cover_image":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/089b5410-cd04-4707-8a76-13819f01aa6e_734x425.png","cover_image_is_square":false,"cover_image_is_explicit":false,"podcast_url":null,"videoUpload":null,"podcastFields":{"post_id":194342774,"podcast_episode_number":null,"podcast_season_number":null,"podcast_episode_type":null,"should_syndicate_to_other_feed":null,"syndicate_to_section_id":null,"hide_from_feed":false,"free_podcast_url":null,"free_podcast_duration":null,"preview_contains_ad":false,"was_imported_self_serve_sync":false,"draft_free_podcast_url":null,"draft_free_podcast_duration":null},"podcast_preview_upload_id":null,"podcastUpload":null,"podcastPreviewUpload":null,"voiceover_upload_id":null,"voiceoverUpload":null,"has_voiceover":false,"description":"...","body_json":null,"body_html":null,"has_dynamic_content":false,"truncated_body_text":null,"wordcount":2080,"post_preview_limit":0,"language":"en","postTags":[],"teaser_post_eligible":true,"postCountryBlocks":[],"headlineTest":null,"coverImagePalette":{"Vibrant":{"rgb":[68,124,196],"population":1},"DarkVibrant":{"rgb":[4,22,41],"population":76},"LightVibrant":{"rgb":[240,161,139],"population":444},"Muted":{"rgb":[165,108,83],"population":20},"DarkMuted":{"rgb":[86,55,47],"population":120},"LightMuted":{"rgb":[217,178,170],"population":290}},"publishedBylines":[{"id":12009663,"name":"Scott Alexander","handle":"astralcodexten","photo_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7b500d22-1176-42ad-afaa-5d72bc36a809_44x44.png","bio":null,"profile_set_up_at":"2021-04-16T05:06:04.745Z","reader_installed_at":null,"publicationUsers":[{"id":18921,"user_id":12009663,"publication_id":89120,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":true,"publication":{"id":89120,"name":"Astral Codex Ten","subdomain":"astralcodexten","custom_domain":"www.astralcodexten.com","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"P(A|B) = [P(A)*P(B|A)]/P(B), all the rest is commentary.","logo_url":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/430241cb-ade5-4316-b1c9-6e3fe6e63e5e_256x256.png","author_id":12009663,"primary_user_id":12009663,"theme_var_background_pop":"#67bdfc","created_at":"2020-08-30T04:18:18.308Z","email_from_name":"Astral Codex Ten","copyright":"Scott Alexander","founding_plan_name":"Founding Member","community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"enabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}},{"id":4774441,"user_id":12009663,"publication_id":3475640,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":false,"publication":{"id":3475640,"name":"AI Futures Project","subdomain":"aifutures1","custom_domain":"blog.aifutures.org","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"Preparing for a world with AGI","logo_url":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/3409cfd0-9243-479e-80f9-d0e3922c450a_132x132.png","author_id":1831134,"primary_user_id":1831134,"theme_var_background_pop":"#FF6719","created_at":"2024-12-06T19:32:31.188Z","email_from_name":"The AI Futures Project","copyright":"AI Futures Project","founding_plan_name":null,"community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"disabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}}],"is_guest":false,"bestseller_tier":1000,"status":{"bestsellerTier":1000,"subscriberTier":10,"leaderboard":null,"vip":false,"badge":{"type":"bestseller","tier":1000},"subscriber":null}}],"reaction":null,"reaction_count":868,"comment_count":1144,"child_comment_count":144,"audio_items":[{"post_id":194342774,"voice_id":"en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural","audio_url":"https://substack-video.s3.amazonaws.com/video_upload/post/194342774/tts/b4e05ed4-e5a6-47b5-9631-86e08cf3a2e1/en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural.mp3","type":"tts","status":"completed"}],"is_geoblocked":false,"hasCashtag":false},{"id":194065887,"editor_v2":false,"publication_id":89120,"title":"Open Thread 429","social_title":"Open Thread 429","search_engine_title":null,"search_engine_description":null,"type":"newsletter","slug":"open-thread-429","post_date":"2026-04-13T12:53:42.423Z","audience":"everyone","podcast_duration":null,"video_upload_id":null,"podcast_upload_id":null,"write_comment_permissions":"everyone","should_send_free_preview":false,"free_unlock_required":false,"default_comment_sort":null,"canonical_url":"https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/open-thread-429","section_id":null,"top_exclusions":[],"pins":[],"is_section_pinned":false,"section_slug":null,"section_name":null,"reactions":{"❤":66},"restacks":3,"restacked_post_id":null,"restacked_post_slug":null,"restacked_pub_name":null,"restacked_pub_logo_url":null,"subtitle":"...","cover_image":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/17f95ea0-b04e-4921-98e4-37ee222ded14_1536x1024.png","cover_image_is_square":false,"cover_image_is_explicit":false,"podcast_url":null,"videoUpload":null,"podcastFields":{"post_id":194065887,"podcast_episode_number":null,"podcast_season_number":null,"podcast_episode_type":null,"should_syndicate_to_other_feed":null,"syndicate_to_section_id":null,"hide_from_feed":false,"free_podcast_url":null,"free_podcast_duration":null,"preview_contains_ad":false,"was_imported_self_serve_sync":false,"draft_free_podcast_url":null,"draft_free_podcast_duration":null},"podcast_preview_upload_id":null,"podcastUpload":null,"podcastPreviewUpload":null,"voiceover_upload_id":null,"voiceoverUpload":null,"has_voiceover":false,"description":"...","body_json":null,"body_html":null,"has_dynamic_content":false,"truncated_body_text":null,"wordcount":105,"post_preview_limit":0,"language":"en","postTags":[],"teaser_post_eligible":true,"postCountryBlocks":[],"headlineTest":null,"coverImagePalette":{"Vibrant":{"rgb":[215,56,13],"population":269},"DarkVibrant":{"rgb":[123,24,11],"population":283},"LightVibrant":{"rgb":[241,170,71],"population":645},"Muted":{"rgb":[86,160,162],"population":14},"DarkMuted":{"rgb":[52,92,54],"population":115},"LightMuted":{"rgb":[142.18181818181816,87.3181818181818,10.81818181818183],"population":0}},"publishedBylines":[{"id":12009663,"name":"Scott Alexander","handle":"astralcodexten","photo_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7b500d22-1176-42ad-afaa-5d72bc36a809_44x44.png","bio":null,"profile_set_up_at":"2021-04-16T05:06:04.745Z","reader_installed_at":null,"publicationUsers":[{"id":18921,"user_id":12009663,"publication_id":89120,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":true,"publication":{"id":89120,"name":"Astral Codex Ten","subdomain":"astralcodexten","custom_domain":"www.astralcodexten.com","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"P(A|B) = [P(A)*P(B|A)]/P(B), all the rest is commentary.","logo_url":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/430241cb-ade5-4316-b1c9-6e3fe6e63e5e_256x256.png","author_id":12009663,"primary_user_id":12009663,"theme_var_background_pop":"#67bdfc","created_at":"2020-08-30T04:18:18.308Z","email_from_name":"Astral Codex Ten","copyright":"Scott Alexander","founding_plan_name":"Founding Member","community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"enabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}},{"id":4774441,"user_id":12009663,"publication_id":3475640,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":false,"publication":{"id":3475640,"name":"AI Futures Project","subdomain":"aifutures1","custom_domain":"blog.aifutures.org","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"Preparing for a world with AGI","logo_url":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/3409cfd0-9243-479e-80f9-d0e3922c450a_132x132.png","author_id":1831134,"primary_user_id":1831134,"theme_var_background_pop":"#FF6719","created_at":"2024-12-06T19:32:31.188Z","email_from_name":"The AI Futures Project","copyright":"AI Futures Project","founding_plan_name":null,"community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"disabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}}],"is_guest":false,"bestseller_tier":1000,"status":{"bestsellerTier":1000,"subscriberTier":10,"leaderboard":null,"vip":false,"badge":{"type":"bestseller","tier":1000},"subscriber":null}}],"reaction":null,"reaction_count":66,"comment_count":957,"child_comment_count":46,"audio_items":[{"post_id":194065887,"voice_id":"en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural","audio_url":"https://substack-video.s3.amazonaws.com/video_upload/post/194065887/tts/bbbf67c5-64ab-444d-80b7-b49e0dafadc4/en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural.mp3","type":"tts","status":"completed"}],"is_geoblocked":false,"hasCashtag":false},{"id":193608180,"editor_v2":false,"publication_id":89120,"title":"Open Thread 428.5 + Zagreb Update","social_title":"Open Thread 428.5 + Zagreb Update","search_engine_title":null,"search_engine_description":null,"type":"newsletter","slug":"open-thread-4285-zagreb-update","post_date":"2026-04-08T18:45:24.675Z","audience":"everyone","podcast_duration":null,"video_upload_id":null,"podcast_upload_id":null,"write_comment_permissions":"everyone","should_send_free_preview":false,"free_unlock_required":false,"default_comment_sort":"most_recent_first","canonical_url":"https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/open-thread-4285-zagreb-update","section_id":null,"top_exclusions":[],"pins":[],"is_section_pinned":false,"section_slug":null,"section_name":null,"reactions":{"❤":43},"restacks":0,"restacked_post_id":null,"restacked_post_slug":null,"restacked_pub_name":null,"restacked_pub_logo_url":null,"subtitle":"...","cover_image":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/5d44ea44-6a93-4c9c-98f2-2b6da068c27f_496x341.png","cover_image_is_square":false,"cover_image_is_explicit":false,"podcast_url":null,"videoUpload":null,"podcastFields":null,"podcast_preview_upload_id":null,"podcastUpload":null,"podcastPreviewUpload":null,"voiceover_upload_id":null,"voiceoverUpload":null,"has_voiceover":false,"description":"...","body_json":null,"body_html":null,"has_dynamic_content":false,"truncated_body_text":null,"wordcount":38,"post_preview_limit":0,"language":"en","postTags":[],"teaser_post_eligible":true,"postCountryBlocks":[],"headlineTest":null,"coverImagePalette":{"Vibrant":{"rgb":[52,44,196],"population":66},"DarkVibrant":{"rgb":[52,36,190],"population":34},"LightVibrant":{"rgb":[108,156,236],"population":1},"Muted":{"rgb":[132,96,172],"population":2},"DarkMuted":{"rgb":[108,100,108],"population":1},"LightMuted":{"rgb":[182,196,215],"population":53}},"publishedBylines":[{"id":12009663,"name":"Scott Alexander","handle":"astralcodexten","photo_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7b500d22-1176-42ad-afaa-5d72bc36a809_44x44.png","bio":null,"profile_set_up_at":"2021-04-16T05:06:04.745Z","reader_installed_at":null,"publicationUsers":[{"id":18921,"user_id":12009663,"publication_id":89120,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":true,"publication":{"id":89120,"name":"Astral Codex Ten","subdomain":"astralcodexten","custom_domain":"www.astralcodexten.com","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"P(A|B) = [P(A)*P(B|A)]/P(B), all the rest is commentary.","logo_url":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/430241cb-ade5-4316-b1c9-6e3fe6e63e5e_256x256.png","author_id":12009663,"primary_user_id":12009663,"theme_var_background_pop":"#67bdfc","created_at":"2020-08-30T04:18:18.308Z","email_from_name":"Astral Codex Ten","copyright":"Scott Alexander","founding_plan_name":"Founding Member","community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"enabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}},{"id":4774441,"user_id":12009663,"publication_id":3475640,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":false,"publication":{"id":3475640,"name":"AI Futures Project","subdomain":"aifutures1","custom_domain":"blog.aifutures.org","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"Preparing for a world with AGI","logo_url":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/3409cfd0-9243-479e-80f9-d0e3922c450a_132x132.png","author_id":1831134,"primary_user_id":1831134,"theme_var_background_pop":"#FF6719","created_at":"2024-12-06T19:32:31.188Z","email_from_name":"The AI Futures Project","copyright":"AI Futures Project","founding_plan_name":null,"community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"disabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}}],"is_guest":false,"bestseller_tier":1000,"status":{"bestsellerTier":1000,"subscriberTier":10,"leaderboard":null,"vip":false,"badge":{"type":"bestseller","tier":1000},"subscriber":null}}],"reaction":null,"reaction_count":43,"comment_count":434,"child_comment_count":25,"audio_items":[{"post_id":193608180,"voice_id":"en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural","audio_url":"https://substack-video.s3.amazonaws.com/video_upload/post/193608180/tts/c3f1fa2d-4c0c-49c4-9ecc-caa6a8f4dfa9/en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural.mp3","type":"tts","status":"completed"}],"is_geoblocked":false,"hasCashtag":false},{"id":193509923,"editor_v2":false,"publication_id":89120,"title":"Zagreb Meetup This Friday","social_title":"Zagreb Meetup This Friday","search_engine_title":null,"search_engine_description":null,"type":"newsletter","slug":"zagreb-meetup-this-friday","post_date":"2026-04-07T20:51:24.097Z","audience":"everyone","podcast_duration":null,"video_upload_id":null,"podcast_upload_id":null,"write_comment_permissions":"everyone","should_send_free_preview":false,"free_unlock_required":false,"default_comment_sort":null,"canonical_url":"https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/zagreb-meetup-this-friday","section_id":null,"top_exclusions":[],"pins":[],"is_section_pinned":false,"section_slug":null,"section_name":null,"reactions":{"❤":60},"restacks":0,"restacked_post_id":null,"restacked_post_slug":null,"restacked_pub_name":null,"restacked_pub_logo_url":null,"subtitle":"...","cover_image":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/b1ef1003-eda0-4a97-9153-6ca9aee0f53f_271x131.jpeg","cover_image_is_square":false,"cover_image_is_explicit":false,"podcast_url":null,"videoUpload":null,"podcastFields":{"post_id":193509923,"podcast_episode_number":null,"podcast_season_number":null,"podcast_episode_type":null,"should_syndicate_to_other_feed":null,"syndicate_to_section_id":null,"hide_from_feed":false,"free_podcast_url":null,"free_podcast_duration":null,"preview_contains_ad":false,"was_imported_self_serve_sync":false,"draft_free_podcast_url":null,"draft_free_podcast_duration":null},"podcast_preview_upload_id":null,"podcastUpload":null,"podcastPreviewUpload":null,"voiceover_upload_id":null,"voiceoverUpload":null,"has_voiceover":false,"description":"...","body_json":null,"body_html":null,"has_dynamic_content":false,"truncated_body_text":null,"wordcount":214,"post_preview_limit":0,"language":"en","postTags":[],"teaser_post_eligible":true,"postCountryBlocks":[],"headlineTest":null,"coverImagePalette":{"Vibrant":{"rgb":[188,108,28],"population":1},"DarkVibrant":{"rgb":[125,126,22],"population":17},"LightVibrant":{"rgb":[225,198,149],"population":138},"Muted":{"rgb":[110,139,153],"population":323},"DarkMuted":{"rgb":[98,72,53],"population":375},"LightMuted":{"rgb":[195,165,139],"population":62}},"publishedBylines":[{"id":12009663,"name":"Scott Alexander","handle":"astralcodexten","photo_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7b500d22-1176-42ad-afaa-5d72bc36a809_44x44.png","bio":null,"profile_set_up_at":"2021-04-16T05:06:04.745Z","reader_installed_at":null,"publicationUsers":[{"id":18921,"user_id":12009663,"publication_id":89120,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":true,"publication":{"id":89120,"name":"Astral Codex Ten","subdomain":"astralcodexten","custom_domain":"www.astralcodexten.com","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"P(A|B) = [P(A)*P(B|A)]/P(B), all the rest is commentary.","logo_url":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/430241cb-ade5-4316-b1c9-6e3fe6e63e5e_256x256.png","author_id":12009663,"primary_user_id":12009663,"theme_var_background_pop":"#67bdfc","created_at":"2020-08-30T04:18:18.308Z","email_from_name":"Astral Codex Ten","copyright":"Scott Alexander","founding_plan_name":"Founding Member","community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"enabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}},{"id":4774441,"user_id":12009663,"publication_id":3475640,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":false,"publication":{"id":3475640,"name":"AI Futures Project","subdomain":"aifutures1","custom_domain":"blog.aifutures.org","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"Preparing for a world with AGI","logo_url":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/3409cfd0-9243-479e-80f9-d0e3922c450a_132x132.png","author_id":1831134,"primary_user_id":1831134,"theme_var_background_pop":"#FF6719","created_at":"2024-12-06T19:32:31.188Z","email_from_name":"The AI Futures Project","copyright":"AI Futures Project","founding_plan_name":null,"community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"disabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}}],"is_guest":false,"bestseller_tier":1000,"status":{"bestsellerTier":1000,"subscriberTier":10,"leaderboard":null,"vip":false,"badge":{"type":"bestseller","tier":1000},"subscriber":null}}],"reaction":null,"reaction_count":60,"comment_count":28,"child_comment_count":13,"audio_items":[{"post_id":193509923,"voice_id":"en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural","audio_url":"https://substack-video.s3.amazonaws.com/video_upload/post/193509923/tts/932d80e9-9a3f-4d90-8f02-6640e1364ef8/en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural.mp3","type":"tts","status":"completed"}],"is_geoblocked":false,"hasCashtag":false},{"id":193329092,"editor_v2":false,"publication_id":89120,"title":"Open Thread 428","social_title":"Open Thread 428","search_engine_title":null,"search_engine_description":null,"type":"newsletter","slug":"open-thread-428","post_date":"2026-04-06T09:01:19.263Z","audience":"everyone","podcast_duration":null,"video_upload_id":null,"podcast_upload_id":null,"write_comment_permissions":"everyone","should_send_free_preview":false,"free_unlock_required":false,"default_comment_sort":"most_recent_first","canonical_url":"https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/open-thread-428","section_id":null,"top_exclusions":[],"pins":[],"is_section_pinned":false,"section_slug":null,"section_name":null,"reactions":{"❤":46},"restacks":3,"restacked_post_id":null,"restacked_post_slug":null,"restacked_pub_name":null,"restacked_pub_logo_url":null,"subtitle":"...","cover_image":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/92e55a9f-f750-447e-897b-c5b65f29c8d3_496x341.png","cover_image_is_square":false,"cover_image_is_explicit":false,"podcast_url":null,"videoUpload":null,"podcastFields":{"post_id":193329092,"podcast_episode_number":null,"podcast_season_number":null,"podcast_episode_type":null,"should_syndicate_to_other_feed":null,"syndicate_to_section_id":null,"hide_from_feed":false,"free_podcast_url":null,"free_podcast_duration":null,"preview_contains_ad":false,"was_imported_self_serve_sync":false,"draft_free_podcast_url":null,"draft_free_podcast_duration":null},"podcast_preview_upload_id":null,"podcastUpload":null,"podcastPreviewUpload":null,"voiceover_upload_id":null,"voiceoverUpload":null,"has_voiceover":false,"description":"...","body_json":null,"body_html":null,"has_dynamic_content":false,"truncated_body_text":null,"wordcount":690,"post_preview_limit":0,"language":"en","postTags":[],"teaser_post_eligible":true,"postCountryBlocks":[],"headlineTest":null,"coverImagePalette":{"Vibrant":{"rgb":[52,44,196],"population":66},"DarkVibrant":{"rgb":[52,36,190],"population":34},"LightVibrant":{"rgb":[108,156,236],"population":1},"Muted":{"rgb":[132,96,172],"population":2},"DarkMuted":{"rgb":[108,100,108],"population":1},"LightMuted":{"rgb":[182,196,215],"population":53}},"publishedBylines":[{"id":12009663,"name":"Scott Alexander","handle":"astralcodexten","photo_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7b500d22-1176-42ad-afaa-5d72bc36a809_44x44.png","bio":null,"profile_set_up_at":"2021-04-16T05:06:04.745Z","reader_installed_at":null,"publicationUsers":[{"id":18921,"user_id":12009663,"publication_id":89120,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":true,"publication":{"id":89120,"name":"Astral Codex Ten","subdomain":"astralcodexten","custom_domain":"www.astralcodexten.com","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"P(A|B) = [P(A)*P(B|A)]/P(B), all the rest is commentary.","logo_url":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/430241cb-ade5-4316-b1c9-6e3fe6e63e5e_256x256.png","author_id":12009663,"primary_user_id":12009663,"theme_var_background_pop":"#67bdfc","created_at":"2020-08-30T04:18:18.308Z","email_from_name":"Astral Codex Ten","copyright":"Scott Alexander","founding_plan_name":"Founding Member","community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"enabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}},{"id":4774441,"user_id":12009663,"publication_id":3475640,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":false,"publication":{"id":3475640,"name":"AI Futures Project","subdomain":"aifutures1","custom_domain":"blog.aifutures.org","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"Preparing for a world with AGI","logo_url":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/3409cfd0-9243-479e-80f9-d0e3922c450a_132x132.png","author_id":1831134,"primary_user_id":1831134,"theme_var_background_pop":"#FF6719","created_at":"2024-12-06T19:32:31.188Z","email_from_name":"The AI Futures Project","copyright":"AI Futures Project","founding_plan_name":null,"community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"disabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}}],"is_guest":false,"bestseller_tier":1000,"status":{"bestsellerTier":1000,"subscriberTier":10,"leaderboard":null,"vip":false,"badge":{"type":"bestseller","tier":1000},"subscriber":null}}],"reaction":null,"reaction_count":46,"comment_count":688,"child_comment_count":57,"audio_items":[{"post_id":193329092,"voice_id":"en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural","audio_url":"https://substack-video.s3.amazonaws.com/video_upload/post/193329092/tts/b19e4587-0bd6-4ba9-935c-d873bd96139c/en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural.mp3","type":"tts","status":"completed"}],"is_geoblocked":false,"hasCashtag":false},{"id":192588431,"editor_v2":false,"publication_id":89120,"title":"The PauseAI Protest: A Photo-Essay","social_title":"The PauseAI Protest: A Photo-Essay","search_engine_title":null,"search_engine_description":null,"type":"newsletter","slug":"the-pauseai-protest-a-photo-essay","post_date":"2026-04-03T05:23:46.469Z","audience":"only_paid","podcast_duration":null,"video_upload_id":null,"podcast_upload_id":null,"write_comment_permissions":"only_paid","should_send_free_preview":false,"free_unlock_required":false,"default_comment_sort":null,"canonical_url":"https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/the-pauseai-protest-a-photo-essay","section_id":null,"top_exclusions":[],"pins":[],"is_section_pinned":false,"section_slug":null,"section_name":null,"reactions":{"❤":98},"restacks":6,"restacked_post_id":null,"restacked_post_slug":null,"restacked_pub_name":null,"restacked_pub_logo_url":null,"subtitle":"...","cover_image":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!fUye!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F015c6728-c712-4325-82be-8c7cb1d0e9fb_1224x918.png","cover_image_is_square":false,"cover_image_is_explicit":false,"podcast_url":null,"videoUpload":null,"podcastFields":{"post_id":192588431,"podcast_episode_number":null,"podcast_season_number":null,"podcast_episode_type":null,"should_syndicate_to_other_feed":null,"syndicate_to_section_id":null,"hide_from_feed":false,"free_podcast_url":null,"free_podcast_duration":null,"preview_contains_ad":false,"was_imported_self_serve_sync":false,"draft_free_podcast_url":null,"draft_free_podcast_duration":null},"podcast_preview_upload_id":null,"podcastUpload":null,"podcastPreviewUpload":null,"voiceover_upload_id":null,"voiceoverUpload":null,"has_voiceover":false,"description":"...","body_json":null,"body_html":null,"has_dynamic_content":false,"truncated_body_text":null,"wordcount":1253,"post_preview_limit":0,"language":"en","postTags":[],"teaser_post_eligible":true,"postCountryBlocks":[],"headlineTest":null,"coverImagePalette":{"Vibrant":{"rgb":[56,192,220],"population":2},"DarkVibrant":{"rgb":[31,73,108],"population":446},"LightVibrant":{"rgb":[163,199,233],"population":453},"Muted":{"rgb":[101,128,145],"population":76},"DarkMuted":{"rgb":[42,58,74],"population":533},"LightMuted":{"rgb":[194,184,169],"population":140}},"publishedBylines":[{"id":12009663,"name":"Scott Alexander","handle":"astralcodexten","photo_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7b500d22-1176-42ad-afaa-5d72bc36a809_44x44.png","bio":null,"profile_set_up_at":"2021-04-16T05:06:04.745Z","reader_installed_at":null,"publicationUsers":[{"id":18921,"user_id":12009663,"publication_id":89120,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":true,"publication":{"id":89120,"name":"Astral Codex Ten","subdomain":"astralcodexten","custom_domain":"www.astralcodexten.com","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"P(A|B) = [P(A)*P(B|A)]/P(B), all the rest is commentary.","logo_url":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/430241cb-ade5-4316-b1c9-6e3fe6e63e5e_256x256.png","author_id":12009663,"primary_user_id":12009663,"theme_var_background_pop":"#67bdfc","created_at":"2020-08-30T04:18:18.308Z","email_from_name":"Astral Codex Ten","copyright":"Scott Alexander","founding_plan_name":"Founding Member","community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"enabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}},{"id":4774441,"user_id":12009663,"publication_id":3475640,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":false,"publication":{"id":3475640,"name":"AI Futures Project","subdomain":"aifutures1","custom_domain":"blog.aifutures.org","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"Preparing for a world with AGI","logo_url":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/3409cfd0-9243-479e-80f9-d0e3922c450a_132x132.png","author_id":1831134,"primary_user_id":1831134,"theme_var_background_pop":"#FF6719","created_at":"2024-12-06T19:32:31.188Z","email_from_name":"The AI Futures Project","copyright":"AI Futures Project","founding_plan_name":null,"community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"disabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}}],"is_guest":false,"bestseller_tier":1000,"status":{"bestsellerTier":1000,"subscriberTier":10,"leaderboard":null,"vip":false,"badge":{"type":"bestseller","tier":1000},"subscriber":null}}],"reaction":null,"reaction_count":98,"comment_count":105,"child_comment_count":23,"audio_items":[{"post_id":192588431,"voice_id":"en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural","audio_url":null,"type":"tts","status":"paywalled"}],"is_geoblocked":false,"hidden":true,"hasCashtag":false},{"id":193039095,"editor_v2":false,"publication_id":89120,"title":"Hidden Open Thread 427.5","social_title":"Hidden Open Thread 427.5","search_engine_title":null,"search_engine_description":null,"type":"newsletter","slug":"hidden-open-thread-4275","post_date":"2026-04-03T05:21:46.344Z","audience":"only_paid","podcast_duration":null,"video_upload_id":null,"podcast_upload_id":null,"write_comment_permissions":"only_paid","should_send_free_preview":false,"free_unlock_required":false,"default_comment_sort":"most_recent_first","canonical_url":"https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/hidden-open-thread-4275","section_id":null,"top_exclusions":[],"pins":[],"is_section_pinned":false,"section_slug":null,"section_name":null,"reactions":{"❤":4},"restacks":0,"restacked_post_id":null,"restacked_post_slug":null,"restacked_pub_name":null,"restacked_pub_logo_url":null,"subtitle":"...","cover_image":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/f0f42cad-bc62-44e6-948e-49c924df68a5_612x583.jpeg","cover_image_is_square":false,"cover_image_is_explicit":false,"podcast_url":null,"videoUpload":null,"podcastFields":{"post_id":193039095,"podcast_episode_number":null,"podcast_season_number":null,"podcast_episode_type":null,"should_syndicate_to_other_feed":null,"syndicate_to_section_id":null,"hide_from_feed":false,"free_podcast_url":null,"free_podcast_duration":null,"preview_contains_ad":false,"was_imported_self_serve_sync":false,"draft_free_podcast_url":null,"draft_free_podcast_duration":null},"podcast_preview_upload_id":null,"podcastUpload":null,"podcastPreviewUpload":null,"voiceover_upload_id":null,"voiceoverUpload":null,"has_voiceover":false,"description":"...","body_json":null,"body_html":null,"has_dynamic_content":false,"truncated_body_text":null,"wordcount":20,"post_preview_limit":0,"language":"en","postTags":[],"teaser_post_eligible":true,"postCountryBlocks":[],"headlineTest":null,"coverImagePalette":{"Vibrant":{"rgb":[129.375,129.375,125.625],"population":0},"DarkVibrant":{"rgb":[67.275,67.275,65.325],"population":0},"LightVibrant":{"rgb":[189.67499999999998,189.67499999999998,187.725],"population":0},"Muted":{"rgb":[124,124,124],"population":4},"DarkMuted":{"rgb":[68,68,68],"population":7},"LightMuted":{"rgb":[188,188,186],"population":5}},"publishedBylines":[{"id":12009663,"name":"Scott Alexander","handle":"astralcodexten","photo_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7b500d22-1176-42ad-afaa-5d72bc36a809_44x44.png","bio":null,"profile_set_up_at":"2021-04-16T05:06:04.745Z","reader_installed_at":null,"publicationUsers":[{"id":18921,"user_id":12009663,"publication_id":89120,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":true,"publication":{"id":89120,"name":"Astral Codex Ten","subdomain":"astralcodexten","custom_domain":"www.astralcodexten.com","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"P(A|B) = [P(A)*P(B|A)]/P(B), all the rest is commentary.","logo_url":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/430241cb-ade5-4316-b1c9-6e3fe6e63e5e_256x256.png","author_id":12009663,"primary_user_id":12009663,"theme_var_background_pop":"#67bdfc","created_at":"2020-08-30T04:18:18.308Z","email_from_name":"Astral Codex Ten","copyright":"Scott Alexander","founding_plan_name":"Founding Member","community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"enabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}},{"id":4774441,"user_id":12009663,"publication_id":3475640,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":false,"publication":{"id":3475640,"name":"AI Futures Project","subdomain":"aifutures1","custom_domain":"blog.aifutures.org","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"Preparing for a world with AGI","logo_url":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/3409cfd0-9243-479e-80f9-d0e3922c450a_132x132.png","author_id":1831134,"primary_user_id":1831134,"theme_var_background_pop":"#FF6719","created_at":"2024-12-06T19:32:31.188Z","email_from_name":"The AI Futures Project","copyright":"AI Futures Project","founding_plan_name":null,"community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"disabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}}],"is_guest":false,"bestseller_tier":1000,"status":{"bestsellerTier":1000,"subscriberTier":10,"leaderboard":null,"vip":false,"badge":{"type":"bestseller","tier":1000},"subscriber":null}}],"reaction":null,"reaction_count":4,"comment_count":81,"child_comment_count":11,"audio_items":[{"post_id":193039095,"voice_id":"en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural","audio_url":null,"type":"tts","status":"paywalled"}],"is_geoblocked":false,"hidden":true,"hasCashtag":false},{"id":192572899,"editor_v2":false,"publication_id":89120,"title":"Meetups Everywhere Spring 2026: Times & Places","social_title":"Meetups Everywhere Spring 2026: Times & Places","search_engine_title":null,"search_engine_description":null,"type":"newsletter","slug":"meetups-everywhere-spring-2026-times","post_date":"2026-04-01T03:24:46.393Z","audience":"everyone","podcast_duration":null,"video_upload_id":null,"podcast_upload_id":null,"write_comment_permissions":"everyone","should_send_free_preview":false,"free_unlock_required":false,"default_comment_sort":null,"canonical_url":"https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/meetups-everywhere-spring-2026-times","section_id":null,"top_exclusions":[],"pins":[],"is_section_pinned":false,"section_slug":null,"section_name":null,"reactions":{"❤":64},"restacks":4,"restacked_post_id":null,"restacked_post_slug":null,"restacked_pub_name":null,"restacked_pub_logo_url":null,"subtitle":"...","cover_image":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/b22f8e21-ef88-4dfa-8ce4-8867efbec319_1000x667.jpeg","cover_image_is_square":false,"cover_image_is_explicit":false,"podcast_url":null,"videoUpload":null,"podcastFields":{"post_id":192572899,"podcast_episode_number":null,"podcast_season_number":null,"podcast_episode_type":null,"should_syndicate_to_other_feed":null,"syndicate_to_section_id":null,"hide_from_feed":false,"free_podcast_url":null,"free_podcast_duration":null,"preview_contains_ad":false,"was_imported_self_serve_sync":false,"draft_free_podcast_url":null,"draft_free_podcast_duration":null},"podcast_preview_upload_id":null,"podcastUpload":null,"podcastPreviewUpload":null,"voiceover_upload_id":null,"voiceoverUpload":null,"has_voiceover":false,"description":"...","body_json":null,"body_html":null,"has_dynamic_content":false,"truncated_body_text":null,"wordcount":13158,"post_preview_limit":0,"language":"en","postTags":[],"teaser_post_eligible":true,"postCountryBlocks":[],"headlineTest":null,"coverImagePalette":{"Vibrant":{"rgb":[212,172,60],"population":1},"DarkVibrant":{"rgb":[120,42,56],"population":5},"LightVibrant":{"rgb":[216,132,102],"population":4},"Muted":{"rgb":[147,154,96],"population":133},"DarkMuted":{"rgb":[75,87,55],"population":324},"LightMuted":{"rgb":[205,206,176],"population":155}},"publishedBylines":[{"id":120984889,"name":"Skyler","handle":"skylerindexed","photo_url":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/29b082e5-a749-4a7f-9fac-d789f497582d_250x250.jpeg","bio":"I'm Skyler, AKA Screwtape. Starting early in 2023, I'm the ACX Meetups Czar. I also do the NYC Rationalist Megameetup, the Animorphs: The Reckoning podfic, and lots of RPGs.","profile_set_up_at":"2023-04-10T20:07:41.214Z","reader_installed_at":null,"publicationUsers":[{"id":4239222,"user_id":120984889,"publication_id":4156657,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":true,"publication":{"id":4156657,"name":"Archimedes Screwtape","subdomain":"skylerindexed","custom_domain":null,"custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"Firmly on the side of the rising ape. Writings on making fewer mistakes, careful note-taking, and the small practices that compound into progress, with metaphor and story as tools for work and play.","logo_url":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/6d9449bb-5f2c-49be-bd35-80506f8053dd_1024x1024.png","author_id":120984889,"primary_user_id":120984889,"theme_var_background_pop":"#FF6719","created_at":"2025-02-19T05:49:37.591Z","email_from_name":null,"copyright":"Skyler","founding_plan_name":null,"community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"disabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}}],"is_guest":false,"bestseller_tier":null,"status":{"bestsellerTier":null,"subscriberTier":1,"leaderboard":null,"vip":false,"badge":{"type":"subscriber","tier":1,"accent_colors":null},"subscriber":null}}],"reaction":null,"reaction_count":64,"comment_count":61,"child_comment_count":24,"audio_items":[{"post_id":192572899,"voice_id":"en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural","audio_url":"https://substack-video.s3.amazonaws.com/video_upload/post/192572899/tts/0f8cae95-3044-491b-9351-9ad954408ca7/en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural.mp3","type":"tts","status":"completed"}],"is_geoblocked":false,"hasCashtag":false},{"id":158504113,"editor_v2":false,"publication_id":89120,"title":"Against The Concept Of Telescopic Altruism","social_title":"Against The Concept Of Telescopic Altruism","search_engine_title":null,"search_engine_description":null,"type":"newsletter","slug":"against-the-concept-of-telescopic","post_date":"2026-03-31T11:32:53.974Z","audience":"everyone","podcast_duration":null,"video_upload_id":null,"podcast_upload_id":null,"write_comment_permissions":"everyone","should_send_free_preview":false,"free_unlock_required":false,"default_comment_sort":null,"canonical_url":"https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/against-the-concept-of-telescopic","section_id":null,"top_exclusions":[],"pins":[],"is_section_pinned":false,"section_slug":null,"section_name":null,"reactions":{"❤":463},"restacks":40,"restacked_post_id":null,"restacked_post_slug":null,"restacked_pub_name":null,"restacked_pub_logo_url":null,"subtitle":"...","cover_image":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/d6e5d136-b19d-4e26-8062-59befb2522d2_1200x675.jpeg","cover_image_is_square":false,"cover_image_is_explicit":false,"podcast_url":null,"videoUpload":null,"podcastFields":{"post_id":158504113,"podcast_episode_number":null,"podcast_season_number":null,"podcast_episode_type":null,"should_syndicate_to_other_feed":null,"syndicate_to_section_id":null,"hide_from_feed":false,"free_podcast_url":null,"free_podcast_duration":null,"preview_contains_ad":false,"was_imported_self_serve_sync":false,"draft_free_podcast_url":null,"draft_free_podcast_duration":null},"podcast_preview_upload_id":null,"podcastUpload":null,"podcastPreviewUpload":null,"voiceover_upload_id":null,"voiceoverUpload":null,"has_voiceover":false,"description":"...","body_json":null,"body_html":null,"has_dynamic_content":false,"truncated_body_text":null,"wordcount":1327,"post_preview_limit":0,"language":"en","postTags":[],"teaser_post_eligible":true,"postCountryBlocks":[],"headlineTest":null,"coverImagePalette":{"Vibrant":{"rgb":[44,68,116],"population":2},"DarkVibrant":{"rgb":[36,52,92],"population":1},"LightVibrant":{"rgb":[158.865,178.75500000000002,218.535],"population":0},"Muted":{"rgb":[118,122,167],"population":378},"DarkMuted":{"rgb":[46,52,84],"population":301},"LightMuted":{"rgb":[178,167,169],"population":342}},"publishedBylines":[{"id":12009663,"name":"Scott Alexander","handle":"astralcodexten","photo_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7b500d22-1176-42ad-afaa-5d72bc36a809_44x44.png","bio":null,"profile_set_up_at":"2021-04-16T05:06:04.745Z","reader_installed_at":null,"publicationUsers":[{"id":18921,"user_id":12009663,"publication_id":89120,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":true,"publication":{"id":89120,"name":"Astral Codex Ten","subdomain":"astralcodexten","custom_domain":"www.astralcodexten.com","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"P(A|B) = [P(A)*P(B|A)]/P(B), all the rest is commentary.","logo_url":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/430241cb-ade5-4316-b1c9-6e3fe6e63e5e_256x256.png","author_id":12009663,"primary_user_id":12009663,"theme_var_background_pop":"#67bdfc","created_at":"2020-08-30T04:18:18.308Z","email_from_name":"Astral Codex Ten","copyright":"Scott Alexander","founding_plan_name":"Founding Member","community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"enabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}},{"id":4774441,"user_id":12009663,"publication_id":3475640,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":false,"publication":{"id":3475640,"name":"AI Futures Project","subdomain":"aifutures1","custom_domain":"blog.aifutures.org","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"Preparing for a world with AGI","logo_url":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/3409cfd0-9243-479e-80f9-d0e3922c450a_132x132.png","author_id":1831134,"primary_user_id":1831134,"theme_var_background_pop":"#FF6719","created_at":"2024-12-06T19:32:31.188Z","email_from_name":"The AI Futures Project","copyright":"AI Futures Project","founding_plan_name":null,"community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"disabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}}],"is_guest":false,"bestseller_tier":1000,"status":{"bestsellerTier":1000,"subscriberTier":10,"leaderboard":null,"vip":false,"badge":{"type":"bestseller","tier":1000},"subscriber":null}}],"reaction":null,"reaction_count":463,"comment_count":608,"child_comment_count":148,"audio_items":[{"post_id":158504113,"voice_id":"en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural","audio_url":"https://substack-video.s3.amazonaws.com/video_upload/post/158504113/tts/1c792e36-bbdd-4a49-a88f-4cfa38e1f599/en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural.mp3","type":"tts","status":"completed"}],"is_geoblocked":false,"hasCashtag":false},{"id":192501649,"editor_v2":false,"publication_id":89120,"title":"Open Thread 427","social_title":"Open Thread 427","search_engine_title":null,"search_engine_description":null,"type":"newsletter","slug":"open-thread-427","post_date":"2026-03-30T08:26:09.904Z","audience":"everyone","podcast_duration":null,"video_upload_id":null,"podcast_upload_id":null,"write_comment_permissions":"everyone","should_send_free_preview":false,"free_unlock_required":false,"default_comment_sort":"most_recent_first","canonical_url":"https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/open-thread-427","section_id":null,"top_exclusions":[],"pins":[],"is_section_pinned":false,"section_slug":null,"section_name":null,"reactions":{"❤":56},"restacks":5,"restacked_post_id":null,"restacked_post_slug":null,"restacked_pub_name":null,"restacked_pub_logo_url":null,"subtitle":"...","cover_image":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/3f695671-5c05-43f4-8505-dec3a174f577_1536x1024.png","cover_image_is_square":false,"cover_image_is_explicit":false,"podcast_url":null,"videoUpload":null,"podcastFields":{"post_id":192501649,"podcast_episode_number":null,"podcast_season_number":null,"podcast_episode_type":null,"should_syndicate_to_other_feed":null,"syndicate_to_section_id":null,"hide_from_feed":false,"free_podcast_url":null,"free_podcast_duration":null,"preview_contains_ad":false,"was_imported_self_serve_sync":false,"draft_free_podcast_url":null,"draft_free_podcast_duration":null},"podcast_preview_upload_id":null,"podcastUpload":null,"podcastPreviewUpload":null,"voiceover_upload_id":null,"voiceoverUpload":null,"has_voiceover":false,"description":"...","body_json":null,"body_html":null,"has_dynamic_content":false,"truncated_body_text":null,"wordcount":588,"post_preview_limit":0,"language":"en","postTags":[],"teaser_post_eligible":true,"postCountryBlocks":[],"headlineTest":null,"coverImagePalette":{"Vibrant":{"rgb":[215,56,13],"population":269},"DarkVibrant":{"rgb":[123,24,11],"population":283},"LightVibrant":{"rgb":[241,170,71],"population":645},"Muted":{"rgb":[86,160,162],"population":14},"DarkMuted":{"rgb":[52,92,54],"population":115},"LightMuted":{"rgb":[142.18181818181816,87.3181818181818,10.81818181818183],"population":0}},"publishedBylines":[{"id":12009663,"name":"Scott Alexander","handle":"astralcodexten","photo_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7b500d22-1176-42ad-afaa-5d72bc36a809_44x44.png","bio":null,"profile_set_up_at":"2021-04-16T05:06:04.745Z","reader_installed_at":null,"publicationUsers":[{"id":18921,"user_id":12009663,"publication_id":89120,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":true,"publication":{"id":89120,"name":"Astral Codex Ten","subdomain":"astralcodexten","custom_domain":"www.astralcodexten.com","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"P(A|B) = [P(A)*P(B|A)]/P(B), all the rest is commentary.","logo_url":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/430241cb-ade5-4316-b1c9-6e3fe6e63e5e_256x256.png","author_id":12009663,"primary_user_id":12009663,"theme_var_background_pop":"#67bdfc","created_at":"2020-08-30T04:18:18.308Z","email_from_name":"Astral Codex Ten","copyright":"Scott Alexander","founding_plan_name":"Founding Member","community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"enabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}},{"id":4774441,"user_id":12009663,"publication_id":3475640,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":false,"publication":{"id":3475640,"name":"AI Futures Project","subdomain":"aifutures1","custom_domain":"blog.aifutures.org","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"Preparing for a world with AGI","logo_url":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/3409cfd0-9243-479e-80f9-d0e3922c450a_132x132.png","author_id":1831134,"primary_user_id":1831134,"theme_var_background_pop":"#FF6719","created_at":"2024-12-06T19:32:31.188Z","email_from_name":"The AI Futures Project","copyright":"AI Futures Project","founding_plan_name":null,"community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"disabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}}],"is_guest":false,"bestseller_tier":1000,"status":{"bestsellerTier":1000,"subscriberTier":10,"leaderboard":null,"vip":false,"badge":{"type":"bestseller","tier":1000},"subscriber":null}}],"reaction":null,"reaction_count":56,"comment_count":695,"child_comment_count":59,"audio_items":[{"post_id":192501649,"voice_id":"en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural","audio_url":"https://substack-video.s3.amazonaws.com/video_upload/post/192501649/tts/fae20e2d-1243-424c-83a4-05d22e8710c9/en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural.mp3","type":"tts","status":"completed"}],"is_geoblocked":false,"hasCashtag":false},{"id":192266200,"editor_v2":false,"publication_id":89120,"title":"A Buddhist Sun Miracle?","social_title":"A Buddhist Sun Miracle?","search_engine_title":null,"search_engine_description":null,"type":"newsletter","slug":"a-buddhist-sun-miracle","post_date":"2026-03-27T15:21:05.687Z","audience":"everyone","podcast_duration":null,"video_upload_id":null,"podcast_upload_id":null,"write_comment_permissions":"everyone","should_send_free_preview":false,"free_unlock_required":false,"default_comment_sort":null,"canonical_url":"https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/a-buddhist-sun-miracle","section_id":null,"top_exclusions":[],"pins":[],"is_section_pinned":false,"section_slug":null,"section_name":null,"reactions":{"❤":268},"restacks":20,"restacked_post_id":null,"restacked_post_slug":null,"restacked_pub_name":null,"restacked_pub_logo_url":null,"subtitle":"...","cover_image":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/14b5f144-dceb-46d3-b09b-ff09b5a60766_1500x940.jpeg","cover_image_is_square":false,"cover_image_is_explicit":false,"podcast_url":null,"videoUpload":null,"podcastFields":{"post_id":192266200,"podcast_episode_number":null,"podcast_season_number":null,"podcast_episode_type":null,"should_syndicate_to_other_feed":null,"syndicate_to_section_id":null,"hide_from_feed":false,"free_podcast_url":null,"free_podcast_duration":null,"preview_contains_ad":false,"was_imported_self_serve_sync":false,"draft_free_podcast_url":null,"draft_free_podcast_duration":null},"podcast_preview_upload_id":null,"podcastUpload":null,"podcastPreviewUpload":null,"voiceover_upload_id":null,"voiceoverUpload":null,"has_voiceover":false,"description":"...","body_json":null,"body_html":null,"has_dynamic_content":false,"truncated_body_text":null,"wordcount":1596,"post_preview_limit":0,"language":"en","postTags":[],"teaser_post_eligible":true,"postCountryBlocks":[],"headlineTest":null,"coverImagePalette":{"Vibrant":{"rgb":[179,118,64],"population":437},"DarkVibrant":{"rgb":[99,52,29],"population":259},"LightVibrant":{"rgb":[238,201,108],"population":195},"Muted":{"rgb":[172,129,84],"population":246},"DarkMuted":{"rgb":[96,66,52],"population":314},"LightMuted":{"rgb":[162,179,197],"population":412}},"publishedBylines":[{"id":12009663,"name":"Scott Alexander","handle":"astralcodexten","photo_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7b500d22-1176-42ad-afaa-5d72bc36a809_44x44.png","bio":null,"profile_set_up_at":"2021-04-16T05:06:04.745Z","reader_installed_at":null,"publicationUsers":[{"id":18921,"user_id":12009663,"publication_id":89120,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":true,"publication":{"id":89120,"name":"Astral Codex Ten","subdomain":"astralcodexten","custom_domain":"www.astralcodexten.com","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"P(A|B) = [P(A)*P(B|A)]/P(B), all the rest is commentary.","logo_url":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/430241cb-ade5-4316-b1c9-6e3fe6e63e5e_256x256.png","author_id":12009663,"primary_user_id":12009663,"theme_var_background_pop":"#67bdfc","created_at":"2020-08-30T04:18:18.308Z","email_from_name":"Astral Codex Ten","copyright":"Scott Alexander","founding_plan_name":"Founding Member","community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"enabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}},{"id":4774441,"user_id":12009663,"publication_id":3475640,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":false,"publication":{"id":3475640,"name":"AI Futures Project","subdomain":"aifutures1","custom_domain":"blog.aifutures.org","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"Preparing for a world with AGI","logo_url":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/3409cfd0-9243-479e-80f9-d0e3922c450a_132x132.png","author_id":1831134,"primary_user_id":1831134,"theme_var_background_pop":"#FF6719","created_at":"2024-12-06T19:32:31.188Z","email_from_name":"The AI Futures Project","copyright":"AI Futures Project","founding_plan_name":null,"community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"disabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}}],"is_guest":false,"bestseller_tier":1000,"status":{"bestsellerTier":1000,"subscriberTier":10,"leaderboard":null,"vip":false,"badge":{"type":"bestseller","tier":1000},"subscriber":null}}],"reaction":null,"reaction_count":268,"comment_count":347,"child_comment_count":37,"audio_items":[{"post_id":192266200,"voice_id":"en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural","audio_url":"https://substack-video.s3.amazonaws.com/video_upload/post/192266200/tts/d0f7edd6-7ce4-4af5-9730-980936b1c46b/en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural.mp3","type":"tts","status":"completed"}],"is_geoblocked":false,"hasCashtag":false},{"id":183557321,"editor_v2":false,"publication_id":89120,"title":"Book Review: The White King Of La Gonave","social_title":"Book Review: The White King Of La Gonave","search_engine_title":null,"search_engine_description":null,"type":"newsletter","slug":"book-review-the-white-king-of-la","post_date":"2026-03-27T00:26:19.673Z","audience":"only_paid","podcast_duration":null,"video_upload_id":null,"podcast_upload_id":null,"write_comment_permissions":"only_paid","should_send_free_preview":false,"free_unlock_required":false,"default_comment_sort":null,"canonical_url":"https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/book-review-the-white-king-of-la","section_id":null,"top_exclusions":[],"pins":[],"is_section_pinned":false,"section_slug":null,"section_name":null,"reactions":{"❤":105},"restacks":0,"restacked_post_id":null,"restacked_post_slug":null,"restacked_pub_name":null,"restacked_pub_logo_url":null,"subtitle":"...","cover_image":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/a5f5bb87-f569-4994-b8a8-bcbb36212dac_584x327.jpeg","cover_image_is_square":false,"cover_image_is_explicit":false,"podcast_url":null,"videoUpload":null,"podcastFields":{"post_id":183557321,"podcast_episode_number":null,"podcast_season_number":null,"podcast_episode_type":null,"should_syndicate_to_other_feed":null,"syndicate_to_section_id":null,"hide_from_feed":false,"free_podcast_url":null,"free_podcast_duration":null,"preview_contains_ad":false,"was_imported_self_serve_sync":false,"draft_free_podcast_url":null,"draft_free_podcast_duration":null},"podcast_preview_upload_id":null,"podcastUpload":null,"podcastPreviewUpload":null,"voiceover_upload_id":null,"voiceoverUpload":null,"has_voiceover":false,"description":"...","body_json":null,"body_html":null,"has_dynamic_content":false,"truncated_body_text":null,"wordcount":3266,"post_preview_limit":0,"language":"en","postTags":[],"teaser_post_eligible":true,"postCountryBlocks":[],"headlineTest":null,"coverImagePalette":{"Vibrant":{"rgb":[75.00000000000001,119.99999999999999,179.99999999999997],"population":0},"DarkVibrant":{"rgb":[10,16,24],"population":41},"LightVibrant":{"rgb":[228,214,189],"population":96},"Muted":{"rgb":[132,126,116],"population":414},"DarkMuted":{"rgb":[62,62,63],"population":393},"LightMuted":{"rgb":[195,187,169],"population":419}},"publishedBylines":[{"id":12009663,"name":"Scott Alexander","handle":"astralcodexten","photo_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7b500d22-1176-42ad-afaa-5d72bc36a809_44x44.png","bio":null,"profile_set_up_at":"2021-04-16T05:06:04.745Z","reader_installed_at":null,"publicationUsers":[{"id":18921,"user_id":12009663,"publication_id":89120,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":true,"publication":{"id":89120,"name":"Astral Codex Ten","subdomain":"astralcodexten","custom_domain":"www.astralcodexten.com","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"P(A|B) = [P(A)*P(B|A)]/P(B), all the rest is commentary.","logo_url":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/430241cb-ade5-4316-b1c9-6e3fe6e63e5e_256x256.png","author_id":12009663,"primary_user_id":12009663,"theme_var_background_pop":"#67bdfc","created_at":"2020-08-30T04:18:18.308Z","email_from_name":"Astral Codex Ten","copyright":"Scott Alexander","founding_plan_name":"Founding Member","community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"enabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}},{"id":4774441,"user_id":12009663,"publication_id":3475640,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":false,"publication":{"id":3475640,"name":"AI Futures Project","subdomain":"aifutures1","custom_domain":"blog.aifutures.org","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"Preparing for a world with AGI","logo_url":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/3409cfd0-9243-479e-80f9-d0e3922c450a_132x132.png","author_id":1831134,"primary_user_id":1831134,"theme_var_background_pop":"#FF6719","created_at":"2024-12-06T19:32:31.188Z","email_from_name":"The AI Futures Project","copyright":"AI Futures Project","founding_plan_name":null,"community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"disabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}}],"is_guest":false,"bestseller_tier":1000,"status":{"bestsellerTier":1000,"subscriberTier":10,"leaderboard":null,"vip":false,"badge":{"type":"bestseller","tier":1000},"subscriber":null}}],"reaction":null,"reaction_count":105,"comment_count":68,"child_comment_count":14,"audio_items":[{"post_id":183557321,"voice_id":"en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural","audio_url":null,"type":"tts","status":"paywalled"}],"is_geoblocked":false,"hidden":true,"hasCashtag":false}]